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The Service Sector in India's Development
A striking aspect of India's recent growth has been the dynamism of its services sector. In 2010, it accounted for 57 percent of the country's GDP and 25 percent of its total employment. The results do not conform to the growth experience of currently industrialized countries or other developing economies. Is the increasing share of the service sector in India's total output simply notional, as several activities that were earlier classified in the industrial sector are now subsumed in services' value added, or because the relative price of services has increased over time? No. The sector's growth is real - it is linked to household final demand, policy reforms and increased service exports. Is this service-led growth process sustainable? That remains an open question because the service sector is highly heterogeneous, ranging from software services and business process outsourcing to wholesale and retail trade and personal services. These subsectors vary considerably in the context of different economic characteristics that are important for development.
Breaking the Mold
The new path for economic development that India must create The whole world has a stake in India’s future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population—now the world’s largest—while staying democratic. India’s economy has overtaken the United Kingdom’s to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China’s, and India’s economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India’s current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country’s majoritarian streak in politics. In Bre...
At Your Service?
Manufacturing-led development has provided the traditional model for creating jobs and prosperity. But in the past three decades the conventional pattern of structural transformation has changed, with the services sector growing faster than the manufacturing sector. This raises critical questions about the ability of developing economies to close productivity gaps with advanced economies and to create good jobs for more people. At Your Service? The Promise of Services-Led Development (www.worldbank.org/services-led-development) assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that can maximize the model’s potential.
Trouble in the Making?
Technology and globalization are threatening manufacturing’s traditional ability to deliver both productivity and jobs at a large scale for unskilled workers. Concerns about widening inequality within and across countries are raising questions about whether interventions are needed and how effective they could be. Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development addresses three questions: - How has the global manufacturing landscape changed and why does this matter for development opportunities? - How are emerging trends in technology and globalization likely to shape the feasibility and desirability of manufacturing-led development in the future? - If low wages are going...
The Service Sector in India's Development
This book analyzes the Indian service sector's heterogeneity. Unlike the few other books in the area, this analysis uses hitherto unutilized data bases, more rigorous methods, and examines some unexplored questions.
India's Services Sector Growth
This paper examines the effect of tradable services growth on non-tradable services across Indian districts. The analysis uses a shift-share "Bartik-type" instrumental variable, which relies on changes in foreign demand shocks for tradable services, weighted by the initial district employment shares in tradable services. Using multiple rounds of the Indian Economic Censuses, the findings show that an increase in tradable services employment leads to an increase in non-tradable services employment and increases the number of firms in non-tradable services. The evidence suggests that this positive impact is due to an increase in consumer demand for local non-tradable services that results from the growth in tradable services employment, and not due to sectoral linkages between tradable and non-tradable services sectors. The employment impact is much larger for female workers compared to male workers, and for the number of female-owned firms relative to male-owned firms. Further, the employment impact is only significant for small non-tradable service firms.
Automation and the Future of Work
A consensus-shattering account of automation technologies and their effect on workplaces and the labor market In this consensus-shattering account of automation technologies, Aaron Benanav investigates the economic trends that will shape our working lives far into the future. Silicon Valley titans, politicians, techno-futurists, and social critics have united in arguing that we are on the cusp of an era of rapid technological automation, heralding the end of work as we know it. But does the muchdiscussed “rise of the robots” really explain the long-term decline in the demand for labor? Automation and the Future of Work uncovers the deep weaknesses of twenty-first-century capitalism and the reasons why the engine of economic growth keeps stalling. Equally important, Benanav goes on to salvage from automation discourse its utopian content: the positive vision of a world without work. What social movements, he asks, are required to propel us into post-scarcity if technological innovation alone can’t deliver it? In response to calls for a permanent universal basic income that would maintain a growing army of redundant workers, he offers a groundbreaking counterproposal.
The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy
Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.
