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Avoiding the New Mediocre
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies
The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs,...
Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes
Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations from the IEO Evaluation Report on IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies
This Management Implementation Plan was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. The actions in the plan and their timeline, therefore, do not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. This MIP includes a package of self-reinforcing actions that aim to: • Strengthen in-house expertise on monetary policy • Deepen the work on UMP and related policies • Further strengthen financial spillover analysis • Explore ways to enhance the Fund’s traction
The Political Economy of Rural Livelihoods in Transition Economies
These chapters reflect the striking differences between transition countries in their processes of rural reform and development of rural poverty.
Montenegro
The Montenegrin economy has rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 shock as private consumption grew, tourism recovered, and an influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine has also contributed to growth. While debt-to-GDP ratios have improved largely due to nominal effects, fiscal weaknesses remain. After prolonged political uncertainty, a new coalition government formed in October 2023. Thereafter, a new Central Bank (CBCG) Governor was appointed in December 2023.
Republic of Kazakhstan
This paper analyzes the Republic of Kazakhstan’s 2013 Article of Consultation. The IMF report focuses on vision of developing Kazakhstan into a leading emerging market economy requires concerted efforts to strengthen the policy architecture. It highlights the importance of enhancing the diversification strategy by strengthening institutions, the business environment, and human capital, while carefully managing the country’s oil wealth. It also discusses that the unification of the pension funds has become a policy priority. The medium-term growth prospects appear to be strong, driven by a substantial projected increase in oil output.
High Inflation in the Baltics: Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness
This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only.
The Caucasus and Central Asia
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Arab Republic of Egypt
This paper discusses Egypt’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Requests for Waivers for Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria (PCs). All quantitative PCs for December 2016 were met, but a large depreciation of the pound is posing policy challenges. Because of higher costs of fuel products, the end-June targets for the fuel subsidy bill and the primary deficit are likely to have been missed. The authorities are taking corrective measures by implementing a stronger fiscal adjustment in the next two years, including through the fuel subsidy reform. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first review under the Extended Arrangement under the EFF arrangement.
