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This book takes stock of and analyzes the events during the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and subsequent developments, including the global financial crisis (GFC), that led to the development of the ASEAN+3 regional financial cooperation framework and the establishment of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. The book is the first of its kind to compile comprehensive recollections of the major players during the AFC and the GFC, including country-level narratives on the causes and developments of the crises, and measures to overcome them. The book not only presents an analytical and deeper examination of country experiences during both crises, but also assesses the two crises and covers the lessons learnt from the crises, particularly with a focus on the development of regional financial cooperation. The book concludes with regional financial cooperation in retrospect, aiming to catalyze further discussions on the direction of the region's financial cooperation.
Since attaining independence in 1965, Singapore has experienced exceptionally rapid growth, low inflation, and a healthy balance of payments. This paper reviews Singapore’s economic development from a long-term perspective and examines some of the factors that have contributed to the rapid growth.
This paper discusses the extent to which the Malaysian economy has been hit by a number of external and domestic shocks since late 2014, including sharply lower energy prices, spillovers from China, capital outflows, and domestic political controversies. The 2016 budget, including January recalibration, reaffirms the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate in an environment of moderating growth and low inflation. Facing sizeable capital outflows and a sharp fall in oil and commodity prices, exchange rate depreciated substantially. The central bank deployed reserves; the effect on domestic interest rates was modest. Credit growth has moderated, a welcome development after several years of double-digit growth.
This paper reviews and analyzes how Morocco overcame the economic and financial crisis it confronted at the beginning of the 1980s. It highlights the challenges that still confront the Moroccan economy and the lessons that can be drawn from Morocco's adjustment experience.
This paper explores not only the recent adjustment efforts but also the prospects for Uganda in the medium term. It provides an overview of recent economic performance with respect to growth, saving, and investment, and provides an analysis of Uganda's external adjustment efforts. The paper surveys fiscal adjustment and the prospects for a sustainable fiscal position, public enterprise reform, and army demobilization.
This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a sharp contraction in the first quarter of 2014, Thailand’s economy experienced a modest recovery in subsequent quarters, to expand by 0.7 percent in the year as a whole. Inflation decelerated toward the end of 2014 and became negative in January 2015 owing to a sharp decline in oil prices. The recovery is expected to continue in 2015 with growth projected at 3.7 percent on account of some rebound in consumption, including from lower fuel prices, and in private investment as backlogs of project approvals have been largely cleared by various government agencies.
In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.
Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.