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Credit Growth in Emerging Europe
High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.
A Cross-country Analysis of Public Debt Management Strategies
This paper analyzes results of a survey on debt management strategies conducted by the Banking and Debt Management Department of the World Bank. The analysis focuses on (1) whether a public debt management strategy exists in a given country, (2) whether it is made public, and (3) in which form it is imparted. The paper analyzes the distribution of the latter characteristics over different regions, income groups, and levels of indebtedness using graphical analysis. Using regression analysis, it investigates the extent to which basic economic factors can explain the characteristics of public debt management strategies across countries.
Emerging Markets
Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beg...
From Right to Reality
This study highlights the interaction between social protection (SP) programs and labor markets in the Latin America region. It presents new evidence on the limited coverage of existing programs and emphasizes the challenges caused by high informality for achieving universal social protection for old age income, health, unemployment risks and anti-poverty safety nets. It identifies interaction effects between SP programs and the behavioral responses of workers, firms and social protection providers, which can further undermine efforts to expand coverage, summarizing evidence from recent work across the region. The book argues for a re-design of financing to eliminate cross subsidies between ...
Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in tempera...
Indonesia
The financial system appears to be broadly resilient, has strong capital and liquidity buffers but remains relatively small and dominated by banks, especially few state-owned banks. Household and corporate indebtedness and public debt are low. The macroprudential policy framework features both financial stability and development objectives. The recently passed Financial Sector Omnibus Law (FSOL) will make notable reforms to the financial sector.
Bulgaria
This Technical Note examines the current state of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in Bulgaria and makes recommendations for a strategy to substantially reduce NPLs. The Bulgarian National Bank should adopt a comprehensive strategy in the near term to achieve a substantive reduction in NPL levels over a three- to five-year time horizon. The strategy should focus on more intensive measures to enhance bank practices in three main areas: (1) loan loss provisioning; (2) loan write-downs of NPLs, in whole or in part, where collection is unlikely; and (3) collateral valuation. This effort would be supported further by enhanced supervisory guidance, supervisory reporting, and risk disclosure.
Philippines: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Risk Assessment of Banks, Non-Financial Corporates, and Macro-Financial Linkages
The Philippines is a dynamic economy with a relatively smaller financial system than other Asian emerging market economies, dominated by banks. The total assets of the system amount to 126 percent of GDP. However, bank credit is just over 50 percent of GDP and mostly goes to nonfinancial corporates (NFCs). Banks are also tightly interlinked with NFCs through conglomerate ownerships. Access to finance for individuals is significantly lower than comparator systems, with only a third of adults having formal accounts. Non-bank financial institutions and capital markets—especially bond markets—are substantially less developed than banks. The Fintech ecosystem is nascent.
Nigeria
This Financial Sector Stability Assessment on Nigeria discusses the macroeconomic performance and structure of the financial system. Although Nigerian economy experienced both domestic and external shocks in recent years, the economy continued to grow rapidly, achieving more than 7 percent growth each year since 2009. The performance of financial institutions has begun to improve, though some of the emergency anti-crisis measures continue to be in place. However, the regulatory and supervisory framework has gaps and weaknesses. In sum, the Nigerian economy has emerged from the banking crisis, and has the potential to enjoy an extended period of strong economic growth.
Are Cash Transfers Made to Women Spent Like Other Sources of Income?
How cash transfers made to women are used has important implications for models of household behavior and for the design of social programs. In this paper, the authors use the randomized introduction of an unconditional cash transfer to poor women in rural Ecuador to analyze the effect of transfers on the food Engel curve. There are two main findings. First, the authors show that households randomly assigned to receive Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) transfers have a significantly higher food share in expenditures than those that were randomly assigned to the control group. Second, they show that the rising food share among BDH beneficiaries is found among households that have both adult mal...
