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Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia
A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the required adjustment in the terms of trade and real exchange rates in a three-country open economy model of the U.S., China, and other emerging Asia. We compare scenarios where both Chinese and other emerging Asian export prices change by the same proportion to the case where export prices remain constant in one country and increase in the other. Our results are robust to different assumptions about elasticities of substitution and to introducing a high degree of vertical fragmentation in production in the model.
The Location of Domestic and Foreign Production Affiliates by French Multinational Firms
Economists interested in location choices usually focus their attention on investments abroad. This neglects the fact that multinational enterprises continue to invest domestically while undertaking foreign expansion. This paper compares investments at home and abroad. Our firm-level dataset shows an important home bias in productive investments. Part of this "excessive" domestic investment is explained by standard determinants of location choices. The interdependence between affiliates of the same industrial group however accounts for the lion's share of the home bias. Moreover, French firms' propensity to invest abroad is positively related to their productivity and the size of their intangible assets.
Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation with Financial Frictions
An integrated analysis of how financial frictions can be accounted for in macroeconomic models built to study monetary policy and macroprudential regulation. Since the global financial crisis, there has been a renewed effort to emphasize financial frictions in designing closed- and open-economy macroeconomic models for monetary and macroprudential policy analysis. Drawing on the extensive literature of the past decade as well as his own contributions, in this book Pierre-Richard Agénor provides a unified set of theoretical and quantitative macroeconomic models with financial frictions to explore issues that have emerged in the wake of the crisis. These include the need to understand better ...
Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession
This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.
Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
The Factory-free Economy
An economic analysis of de-industrialization that considers the ongoing transformation of the industrial economies and the consequences for economic policy.
Beyond Divine Coincidence
During the so-called Great Moderation the variability of output, employment and inflation declined substantially in most of the major economies. Because of this positive co-movement the ultimate objective of monetary policy was clear. By stabilizing inflation output will also stay at its potential and the central bank does not face any trade-off between its targets – a situation known as the divine coincidence. With the onset of the financial crisis 2007 these relationships changed. This book contributes to the research on the optimal macroeconomic policy design in the presence of financial frictions. These are incorporated via the cost channel approach into a two-country currency union model. Ultimately, a supply-side effect arises which lowers the efficiency of monetary policy - divine coincidence is not possible any more. Three questions are in the focus of interest of this analysis: What is the optimal monetary policy in the presence of country-specific financial frictions? What role can fiscal policy play? Is macroprudential policy able to improve welfare if the central bank targets a financial stability measure?
Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market
This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.
Advanced International Trade
Trade is a cornerstone concept in economics worldwide. This updated second edition of the essential graduate textbook in international trade brings readers to the forefront of knowledge in the field and prepares students to undertake their own research. In Advanced International Trade, Robert Feenstra integrates the most current theoretical approaches with empirical evidence, and these materials are supplemented in each chapter by theoretical and empirical exercises. Feenstra explores a wealth of material, such as the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models, extensions to many goods and factors, and the role of tariffs, quotas, and other trade policies. He examines imperfect competition, offsho...
