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The Maastricht Inflation Criterion
The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures-rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits-with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.
Inflation Reports and Models
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries.
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
The Euro and Economic Stability
The Euro and Economic Stability assesses the euro area's merits as a shelter and the merits of euro assets as a safe haven and reviews the case for rapid euro adoption from a post-crisis view. Policymakers and economists provide relevant lessons from euro area divergences for future euro area members and, more generally, from the financial crisis, while banking representatives discuss post-crisis business models of banks in the area. Last but not least, a theoretical introductory chapter fills the gap between mainstream macroeconomic modelling and real-world decision-making. The prime audience for this invaluable book will be economists and other experts in the fields of economic policy and European integration from central, commercial and investment banks, governments, international organizations, universities and research institutes. The book is also aimed at readers with a particular interest in the contributions' special regional focus: Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.
Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework
We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike "pure" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.
Prague Economic Papers
Quarterly journal of economic theory and policy.
Five Years After
The proximity of the European Union, the prospect of membership, and actual entry by the New Member States (NMS) increased economic and financial integration in the region, leading to fast economic growth based on sizeable capital inflows. EU membership helped in developing sound macroeconomic and financial stability frameworks in the NMS. However, these frameworks remain work in progress and as such could not safeguard against private sector exuberance or risky policies, especially in the face of an unprecedented global financial crisis. Hence, more prudent policies and further strengthening of policy frameworks, especially with respect to financial stability, seem warranted.
Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Transformation and Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe
The global financial crisis has provided an important opportunity to revisit debates about post-socialist transition and the relative success of different reform paths. Post-communist Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) in particular show resilience in the wake of the international crisis with a diverse range of economic transformations. Transformation and Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe offers an in depth analysis of a diverse range of countries, including Poland, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, Czech Republic and Slovakia. This volume assesses each country’s institutional transformations, geopolitical policies, and local adaptations that have led them down divergent post-communist paths. C...
