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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries
In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia
Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.
Fintech Potential for Remittance Transfers: A Central America Perspective
This paper analyzes the potential for fintech to facilitate cheaper and more efficient remittances, and to enhance financial inclusion in Central America. Digital remittances remain nascent in the region, primarily reflecting behavioral inertia, small cost advantages of digital over traditional channels, and inadequate financial literacy. Through expanded alliances between traditional and fintech operators, digital remittances can further reduce transaction costs and reach those remote, low-income households in a timely and secure manner. A meaningful expansion of fintech remittances necessitates an enabling regulatory environment for digital financial services, and KYC and AML/CFT requirements proportionate to the value of transfers.
Mongolia
This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.
Chinese Foreign Relations with Weak Peripheral States
This book examines China’s relations with its weak peripheral states through the theoretical lens of structural power and structural violence. China’s foreign policy concepts toward its weak neighbouring states, such as the ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy, are premised on the assumption that economic exchange and a commitment to common development are the most effective means of ensuring stability on its borders. This book, however, argues that China’s overreliance on economic exchange as the basis for its bilateral relations contains inherently self-defeating qualities that have contributed and can further contribute to instability and insecurity within China’s periphery. Unequal ...
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Mexico
A new political landscape is shaping up in Mexico following the July elections. President-elect López Obrador has promised to reduce corruption and crime, and boost social spending and public investment, while maintaining fiscal prudence. The incoming administration will inherit an economy with very strong fundamentals and policy frameworks that has exhibited resilience in the face of a complex external environment. But Mexico still confronts significant challenges—namely to strengthen growth while reducing poverty and inequality—and has yet to win the fight against corruption and crime. At the same time, uncertainty associated with the global economic environment and the policies of the incoming administration persists. Prospects hinge on the steadfast implementation of structural reforms while ensuring continued macroeconomic stability.
Mongolia
Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past ten years. Medium-term prospects are promising as mining output is projected to expand by more than 20 percent per annum, on average, over the next five years. However, the prospects for sustained, rapid and inclusive non-mineral growth depend on the implementation of the stability-oriented fiscal framework that has been adopted in the aftermath of the 2008/09 balance of payments (BOP) crisis. This framework was designed to dampen volatility, mitigate risks to economic and financial stability, and strengthen long-term natural resource management. The expansionary fiscal policy of the past year is causing double-digit inflation and BOP pressures. Public spending needs to be reined in, in order not to risk undermining stability and growth prospects, and in view of Mongolia’s vulnerability to a downturn in commodities exports.
Economics of Global Business
A textbook with innovative real-world macroeconomic analyses of timely policy issues, with case studies and examples from more than fifty countries. This timely and refreshingly real–world focused textbook examines some of the world's most critical policy issues through a macroeconomics lens. After presenting analytical foundations, modeling tools, and theoretical perspectives, Economics of Global Business goes a step further than most other texts, with a practical look at the local and multinational tradeoffs facing economic policymakers in more than fifty countries. Topics range from income equality and the financial crisis to GDP, inflation and unemployment, and, notably, one of the fir...
Continuity and Crisis in German Cinema, 1928-1936
New essays examining the differences and commonalities between late Weimar-era and early Nazi-era German cinema against a backdrop of the crises of that time.
