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Malta
Malta has experienced an impressive recovery from the pandemic and demonstrated resilience to shocks resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With weaker growth in Europe and waning post-pandemic pent-up demand, staff expect growth to decelerate somewhat but continue to expand by 61⁄4 percent in 2023 and 5 percent in 2024, among the highest in Europe. Persistent inflationary pressures are expected, while concern has risen about growing capacity constraints. The financial system has demonstrated resilience to successive shocks.
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) review the macroeconomic impact of the resource sector. Lao PDR’s economic performance is becoming increasingly dependent on the activities of the large mining and hydropower projects. The economic value of the resource projects is significant, even if only proven mineral reserves and hydropower plants are considered. The overall macroeconomic impact of the resource sector over the medium term will depend on the quality and timeliness of the policies adopted to sustain the growth of the non-resource sector.
Canada
Selected Issues
Malta
Malta’s economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic. However, the indirect impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including the anticipated slowdown in the European economy, high and volatile global energy prices, rising import costs, and weakened public finances following the pandemic are weighing on the outlook. The Maltese economy is expected to slow from 61⁄4 percent this year to 31⁄4 percent in 2023. The financial system has proved to be resilient to the pandemic with ample capital and liquidity buffers. In June 2022, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) removed Malta from its grey list of anti-money laundering and combatting the financing terrorism (AML/CFT) framework.
The Rich and the Great Recession
Most papers explaining the macro causes of the U.S. Great Recession focus on the behavior of the middle class: how its saving rate declined in the pre-crisis years, then surged following the crisis. This paper argues that the saving rate of the rich followed a similar pattern, the result of wealth effects associated with a boom-bust in asset prices. Indeed, the swings in saving by the rich must actually have played the most important role in the consumption boom-bust, since since the top 10 percent account for almost half of income and two-thirds of wealth. In other words, the rich played a critical role in the Great Recession.
Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model
Capacity Development (CD), comprising technical assistance and training, fosters economic development by improving human capital and institutions in member countries. Every five years, the IMF reviews its CD Strategy to ensure that CD continues to be of high quality and well-focused on the needs of its members. This review calls for CD to become more flexible, integrated with the Fund’s policy advice and lending, and tailored to respond to member needs. The review benefitted from the recent independent evaluation of the Fund’s CD and a wide range of inputs, including internal and external consultations, surveys of recipients and development partners, staff background studies and recommendations of an External Advisory Group. The vision for CD is informed by the Fund’s comparative advantages and surveillance priorities. The proposals of the current review center around the six key areas: (1) strengthening CD prioritization and integration; (2) enhancing the funding model; (3) strengthening monitoring and evaluation; (4) modernizing modalities; (5) enhancing field presence; and (5) strengthening human resources policies for staff working on CD.
Review of The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Background Papers
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
Sweden
This Selected Issues paper discusses capital and liquidity regulations in Sweden. It recaps the recent debates on capital and liquidity buffers, and discusses a way to consider appropriate levels of capital and liquidity buffers in the case of Sweden. The paper estimates the government’s contingent liabilities from banks by different capital and liquidity levels. Also examined are options for Sweden in case the authorities face constraints to set buffers at their desirable levels.
Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications
We estimate the evolution of markups of publicly traded firms in 74 economies from 1980-2016. In advanced economies, markups have increased by an average of 39 percent since 1980. The increase is broad-based across industries and countries, and driven by the highest markup firms in each economic sector. For emerging markets and developing economies, there is less evidence of a rise in markups. We find a positive relation between firm markups and other indicators of market power, such as profits or industry concentration. Focusing on advanced economies, we investigate the relation between markups and investment, innovation, and the labor share at the firm level. We find evidence of a non-monotonic relation, with higher markups being correlated initially with increasing and then with decreasing investment and innovation rates. This non-monotonicity is more pronounced for firms that are closer to the technological frontier. More concentrated industries also feature a more negative relation between markups and investment and innovation. The association between markups and the labor share is generally negative.
Israel
This report analyzes the Israeli economy and its financial system in detail. A strong macroprudential framework is believed to be an effective tool in identifying in advance and extenuating threats that arise within the financial domain. It is also stated that the present fragile global economic environment is an important opportunity for Israeli authorities to safeguard and alter their financial rules as well as devise new frameworks to overcome the monetary crisis.
