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Paraguay
This paper focuses on the reform options for Paraguay’s fiscal responsibilities law as well as credit growth and banking system vulnerabilities. During the first year of Paraguay’s fiscal responsibility law, implementation has proven challenging, and a debate has emerged over whether its current design is excessively rigid. There are also important reputational costs to amending the framework. Paraguay has experienced rapid credit growth over the past decade. Reflecting these considerations, this chapter analyzes banks’ health and potential risks in Paraguay. Paraguay’s credit markets, as well as the rest of its financial system, are dominated by commercial banks.
Budget and Economic Outlook: an Update
Update of one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that is issued each year; the report makes no recommendations. Contents: (1) The Budget Outlook; (2) The Economic Outlook; (3) Changes in Baseline Since March 2009; (4) The Government¿s Actions in Support of the Housing and Financial Markets. Tables and graphs.
Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather ...
A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies
Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985-2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. T...
United Kingdom: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
The U.K. financial sector is globally systemic, open, and complex. It has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic fittingly, thanks to the post-GFC reforms, a proactive macroprudential stance, and an effective multipronged response to maintain financial stability. Brexit uncertainties are being handled appropriately as the U.K. and EU authorities and the financial industry collaborate to prevent undesirable financial stability outcomes. The endpoint of the pandemic remains unclear, as does the actual impact on the financial system once support measures wane. At this juncture, therefore, financial stability conditions in the United Kingdom are being shaped by three key considerations: (i) the evolving U.K.-EU relationship on financial services; (ii) securing a sustainable and robust post-pandemic economic recovery; and (iii) successfully managing ongoing structural transitions.
Research Bulletin, March 2015
Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
Chile
This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of lower copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. This paper discusses the copper outlook and suggests that the fall in copper prices is likely to have a persistent (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth. It argues that copper prices are unlikely to return to historical highs in the near future. The paper also provides theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the view that long-term GDP growth will not be affected, but the transition toward a lower GDP level can take up to a decade.
South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth
South Asia’s Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.
