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Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning
The proceedings of the Second International Conference on [title] held in Cambridge, Massachusetts, April 1991, comprise 55 papers on topics including the logical specifications of reasoning behaviors and representation formalisms, comparative analysis of competing algorithms and formalisms, and ana
Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
Practitioners of policy analysis will better understand the tools of their trade, and the broader contexts in which analysis contributes.
The Flaw of Averages
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. I...
Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis
This volume is the outcome of a recent NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on "Technology Assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment. and Risk Analysis: Contributions from the Psychological and Decision Sciences." The Institute was held in Les Arcs. France and functioned as a high level teaching activity during which scientific research results were presented in detail by eminent lecturers. Support for the Institute was provided by grants from the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs. the u.S. Office of Naval Research. and the Russell Sage Foundation. The Institute covered several areas of research. including quantitative studies on decision and judgmental processes. studies on human intellectual limitations. studies on risk attitudes and perceptions. studies on factors contributing to conflicts and disputes about hazardous technologies and activities. studies on factors influencing forecasts and judgments by experts. studies on public preferences for decisionmaking processes. studies on public responses to technological hazards. and case studies applying principles and methods from the psychological and decision sciences in specific settings.
Principles of Risk Analysis
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Valuing Health for Regulatory Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Promoting human health and safety by reducing exposures to risks and harms through regulatory interventions is among the most important responsibilities of the government. Such efforts encompass a wide array of activities in many different contexts: improving air and water quality; safeguarding the food supply; reducing the risk of injury on the job, in transportation, and from consumer products; and minimizing exposure to toxic chemicals. Estimating the magnitude of the expected health and longevity benefits and reductions in mortality, morbidity, and injury risks helps policy makers decide whether particular interventions merit the expected costs associated with achieving these benefits an...
Uncertainty Management in Information Systems
As its title suggests, "Uncertainty Management in Information Systems" is a book about how information systems can be made to manage information permeated with uncertainty. This subject is at the intersection of two areas of knowledge: information systems is an area that concentrates on the design of practical systems that can store and retrieve information; uncertainty modeling is an area in artificial intelligence concerned with accurate representation of uncertain information and with inference and decision-making under conditions infused with uncertainty. New applications of information systems require stronger capabilities in the area of uncertainty management. Our hope is that lasting ...
Aquanomics
Water is becoming increasingly scarce. If recent usage trends continue, shortages are inevitable. Aquanomics discusses some of the instruments and policies that may be implemented to postpone, or even avoid, the onset of âwater crises.â These policies include establishing secure andtransferable private water rights and extending these rights to uses that traditionally have not been allowed, includingaltering in-stream flows and ecosystem functions. The editors argue that such policies will help maximize water quantity and quality as water becomes scarcer and more valuable. Aquanomics contains many examples of how this is being accomplished, particularly in the formation of water ma...
