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IMF Staff papers
An intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy is used to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. Temporary current, (expected) future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade are considered. The results suggest that the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account (the so-called Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect) is sensitive to whether the model incorporates nontradable goods. Thus, the real exchange rate may be an important variable through which terms of trade shocks are transmitted to the current account.
Understanding Interdependence
Drawing together new papers by some of today's leading figures in international economics and finance, Understanding Interdependence surveys the current state of knowledge on the international monetary system and, by implication, defines the research horizon for the future. Covering topics including the behavior of exchange rates, the choice of exchange-rate regime, current-account adjustment in classical and Keynesian models, the extent and effects of capital mobility, international debt, the stabilization and reform of the formerly planned economies, European monetary union, and international policy coordination, the book underscores the importance of these subjects and identifies lessons for policymakers. The contributors to the volume are Michael Bruno, Ralph C. Bryant, Richard N. Cooper, Michael P. Dooley, Barry Eichengreen, Stanley Fischer, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Peter Hooper, Peter B. Kenen, Paul R. Krugman, Henri Lorie, Jaime Marquez, Ronald I. McKinnon, Michael Mussa, Maurice Obstfeld, John Odling-Smee, Assaf Razin, Dani Rodrik, Mark P. Taylor, and John Williamson.
Debt Reduction and Economic Activity
This paper focuses on principles and various aspects of debt reduction and economic activity. The paper analyzes the effect of debt and debt-service reduction on the contractual and market values of a country's debt and also describes the IMF staff's preliminary attempts to describe and quantify the macroeconomic effects of debt and debt-service reduction. The method by which the buyback is financed is critical in determining how much debt reduction takes place, or, alternatively put, how much the price of debt rises. It is assumed in this paper that individual creditors are free to retain their existing claims and that these cannot be subordinated to new claims. It should be recognized at the outset that the approach used is but one of several possibilities. It should also be emphasized that the discussion is preliminary and that results will need to be reassessed as less restrictive assumptions are employed and as our understanding of the important economic relationships involved improves.
Sovereign Assets and Liabilities Management
This volume, edited by David Folkerts-Landau and Marcel Cassard, consists of papers presented at a conference held in Hong Kong SAR that was hosted by the IMF and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It focuses on a wide range of issues confronting policymakers in managing their sovereign assets and liabilities in a world of mobile capital and integrated capital markets. Topics include public debt management strategy, central bank reserves management, technical and quantitive aspects of risk management, and credit costs and borrowing capacity in optimizing debt management. The papers draw on experiences of policymakers and private sector participants actively involved in formulating and implementing debt and reserves policy.
Public Debt, Inequality, and Power
Introduction : public debt, inequality and power -- The spectacle of a highly centralized public debt -- The bondholding class resurgent -- Fiscal conflict : past and present -- Bonding domestic and foreign owners -- Who rules the debt state? -- Conclusion : informing democratic debate -- Appendix : accounting for the public debt
The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises
An overview of the causes and consequences of speculative attacks on domestic currency and international financial turmoil. It provides a comprehensive treatment of the existing theories of exchange rate crises and of financial market runs.
The Tobin Tax
In his 1972 Janeway Lectures at Princeton, James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel Prize winner for economics, submitted a proposal for a levy on international currency transactions. The idea was not greeted with enthusiasm, as the 1970s were a period of optimism and confidence in floating exchange rages. Yet, whenever currency crises erupted during the past decades, the proposal for a levy on international currency transactions would once again arise. In the 1990s, two additional facts have sharpened interest in the Tobin tax proposal. First is the growing volume of foreign exchange trading. Second, interest is coming not only from policymakers and experts concerned with the smooth functioning of finan...
External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mounting external debt and large-scale capital flight have been at the forefront of Africa's economic problems since the 1980s. External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa, edited by S. Ibi Ajayi and Mohsin S. Khan, takes a penetrating look at debt and capital flight during the 1990s in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. The book describes the size and composition of debt in the selected countries and examines the causes of the debt buildup. It also assesses the extent of capital flight and suggests ways of stemming the flight of financial resources.
Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies
The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.
Macroeconomic Interactions Between North and South
This volume contains the proceedings of a September 1987 conference and focuses on the North-South macroeconomic interactions.
