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The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 40

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.

Handbook of Monetary Economics
  • Language: en

Handbook of Monetary Economics

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 1990
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  • Publisher: Unknown

None

Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 64

Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble

None

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 517

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2009-09-11
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  • Publisher: MIT Press

Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reex...

Monetary Policy Strategies
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 28

Monetary Policy Strategies

The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal algorithmic learning has been accomplished, and when time consistency problems are significant, a mixed strategy that combines a simple verifiable rule with discretion is attractive. The paper also discusses mechanisms for mitigating credibility problems and emphasizes that arguments against various types of simple rules lose their force under a mixed strategy.

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 296

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrializ...

Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 76

Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues

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Inflation Expectations
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 402

Inflation Expectations

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2009-12-16
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  • Publisher: Routledge

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is...

Open-Economy Macroeconomics
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 437

Open-Economy Macroeconomics

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2016-07-27
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  • Publisher: Springer

The integration of market economies is one of the most remarkable features of international economics, which has important implications for macroeconomic performance in open economies. Equally important is the declining relevance of the real versus the monetary theory dichotomy. These papers focus on those aspects of monetary policy which relate to credibility and non-neutrality; the domestic adjustment to foreign shocks; the interdependence of open economies and their strategic interactions. An important section is also devoted to the innovative modelling of exchange rate dynamics.

Driven
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 348

Driven

An exclusive look at one of the world's most successful and controversial companies, and the mysterious family behind it. BMW is arguably the most admired carmaker in the world. It's financial performance is the envy of its competitors, and BMW products inspire near-fanatical loyalty. While many carmakers struggle with falling sales, profits and market share, demand for BMWs continues to grow, frequently outpacing production. Now, David Kiley-Detroit Bureau Chief at USA Today and author of Getting the Bugs Out, which covered Volkswagen's demise and rebirth, goes inside the fabled German automaker to see how it does what it does so well. With unprecedented access to BMW executives, Kiley goes...