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Financial Depth in the WAEMU
Financial depth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been uneven over the last two decades. The WAEMU countries are lagging behind other regions, particularly the High Growth Non-oil Exporters (HGNOEs) group. We use two complementary methodologies to compare the two groups of countries. In a panel of 16 countries over 1997–2009, we find that the financial gap between the two groups of countries can be explained by institutional factors. In a benchmarking exercise comparing the major economy in the WAEMU (Côte d’Ivoire) with the most structurally similar in the control group (Mozambique), we show that Côte d’Ivoire underperformed relative to Mozambique and to its estimated potential. We then identify policy and institutional asymmetries between the two countries that could explain the gap in performance.
The Impact of Monetary Policy Communication in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Indonesia
Since the adoption of the inflation targeting framework by Bank Indonesia (BI), monetary policy communication has played an increasingly important role in BI’s policy toolkit. This paper assesses BI’s monetary policy communication from three perspectives: i) its transparency and clarity, ii) its ability to align market expectation and BI’s policy decisions (predictability), and iii) its impact on financial markets. In particular, we assess the impact of BI’s monetary policy practices by focusing on its monetary policy press releases and monetary policy reports. The results show that Bank Indonesia has made significant progress in the transparency of its communication as well as in the institutional framework to support this. Nonetheless, the results also suggest ways in which the impact of communication can be further improved, including by strengthening the clarity of policy messages, its consistency with the policy framework and the depth of the money market.
Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco
We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level
What constitutes fiscal space or a prudent level of debt to conduct countercyclical policy while ensuring debt sustainability? This paper addresses the question by exploring the relationship between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and the effective interest rate. This proposed approach is useful in situations where the lack of relevant data makes it difficult to estimate detailed fiscal reaction functions. Applying this approach to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) and based on various debt ceiling assumptions, we find that about 60 percent of these countries presently have fiscal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the availability of domestic and external financing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to have more fiscal space, and countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in conflict and fragile states, tend to lack fiscal space.
Central Bank Digital Currency and Other Digital Payments in Sub-Saharan Africa
This Fintech Note reports key findings from the Sub-Saharan Africa Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and Digital Payments Survey, shedding light on the motivations, benefits, and challenges of CBDC adoption, as well as the developments of digital private money and crypto assets in sub-Saharan Africa. It emphasizes the pivotal role of collaboration and shared knowledge in navigating the intricate landscape of digital currencies and assets in sub-Saharan Africa. As this evolving digital frontier is explored, the experiences and aspirations of the region’s central banks, as expressed in the survey, will help harness the potential for digital currencies, assets, and payments, and foster cooperation among countries in sub-Saharan Africa. A forthcoming IMF Departmental Paper will focus on key issues for countries in sub-Saharan Africa pertaining to CBDCs, private digital payments, and crypto assets. It will provide a deeper discussion of the benefits, costs, and risks of these digital payment systems and present policy options to enhance financial digital development and inclusion, while safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability.
A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior
This paper uses the propensity matching score approach to assess the impact of the IMF’s debt limits policy (DLP) on borrowing behavior in countries eligible to borrow from its concessional lending window. The paper finds that countries under the DLP borrow significantly higher amounts of concessional resources. However, there is no evidence that the DLP significantly impacts the level of non-concessional borrowing nor the terms of such borrowing. This result is confirmed by the heterogeneity analysis, suggesting that the level of development, rather than concessionality requirements, is the key driver of non-concessional borrowing.
Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in Sub-Saharan Africa
Financial intermediation is low in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions of the world. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins using a sample of 456 banks in 41 SSA countries. The results show that market concentration is positively associated with interest margins, but the impact depends on the level of efficiency of each bank. In particular, compared to inefficient banks, efficient ones increase their margins more in concentrated markets. This indicates that policies that promote competition and reduce market concentration would help lower interest margins in SSA. The results also show that bank-specific factors such as credit risk, liquidity risk, and bank equity are important determinants of interest margins. Finally, interest margins are sensitive to inflation, but not to economic growth or public or foreign ownership. There are regional differences within SSA regarding the level of interest margins even after controlling for other factors.
A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior
This paper uses the propensity matching score approach to assess the impact of the IMF’s debt limits policy (DLP) on borrowing behavior in countries eligible to borrow from its concessional lending window. The paper finds that countries under the DLP borrow significantly higher amounts of concessional resources. However, there is no evidence that the DLP significantly impacts the level of non-concessional borrowing nor the terms of such borrowing. This result is confirmed by the heterogeneity analysis, suggesting that the level of development, rather than concessionality requirements, is the key driver of non-concessional borrowing.
Morocco
The 2015 Article IV Consultation discusses key issues related to the economic growth of Morocco. The macroeconomic situation of Morocco continues to improve. Although growth is recovering and should reach 4.7 percent in 2015, nonagricultural activity remains sluggish and inflation remains low. In 2016, growth will be affected by a base effect following the very good 2015 agricultural season, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2017. Although recent policy action and a more favorable external environment have yielded macroeconomic improvements, the reform needs to be maintained to secure longer-term stability and raise growth potential. Much remains to be done to secure higher and more inclusive growth.
Financial Inclusion and Development in the CEMAC
This paper examines financial inclusion and development in the CEMAC. We explore the level of financial inclusion in the CEMAC through a benchmarking exercise.We construct a measure of financial development gap and analyze its determinants. Using panel data regressions, we find that inflation, income, and natural resources explain most of the financial development level but that better financial sector governance and stronger economic governance are positively associated with financial sector development. Richer and poorer countries can be equally far from their expected financial development levels. Finally, we use a benchmarking exercise to identify countries that have successfully reduced the financial development gap and propose policy measures that CEMAC countries could use to boost financial inclusion.
