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Lao People's Democratic Republic
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Lao People’s Democratic Republic is expected to moderate from 7.5 percent in 2015 to 7 percent in 2016. Domestic activity has slowed following a less favorable external environment, and credit growth has also moderated from a high level. As growth continues to moderate in the near-term, inflation is projected to remain in low single digits. The current account deficit is projected to widen to about 19 percent of GDP in 2017 owing to the execution of large infrastructure projects with foreign direct investment.
China's Economy in Transition
China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Philippines
Focuses on the Philippines' economic policies that behind the favorable performance in recent years as well as the remaining reform agenda.
Chile
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Chilean economy is enjoying a broad-based upswing, fueled by a strong global environment and buoyant domestic demand. Underpinned by supportive fiscal and monetary policies, GDP growth is expected to reach 53⁄4 percent in 2007, above the estimated potential growth rate of about 5 percent. Buoyant credit growth and strengthening labor market conditions continue to boost consumer spending and solid corporate profits. The authorities have advanced a broad structural reform agenda. The government has also launched initiatives to boost education, strengthen job-specific human capital, and promote innovation.
Peru
This paper focuses on Peru’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Progress was made on structural reforms, but key reforms remain to be implemented, including the completion of tax reform and implementation of a fiscally neutral decentralization. Both are crucial to fiscal sustainability over the medium term but face considerable risks in the current political environment. The 2003 program aims at maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies, including moderate fiscal adjustment, and pressing ahead with structural reforms. Moderate fiscal adjustment is also needed to give credibility to the authorities' medium-term deficit target.
Cambodia
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights 6.9 percent expected growth in Cambodia’s economy in 2017, with moderating private investment offset by higher public spending and robust construction and tourism activities. Headline inflation rose to 3 percent in 2016 and 3.5 in the first half of 2017, driven mainly by higher food and energy prices. Overall credit growth has slowed, owing in part to policy measures. Real estate sector–related bank credit growth, however, remains strong, supported by demand for housing from Cambodia’s young and growing middle-income population. Real GDP growth is projected to remain robust over the next few years.
Thailand
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a cyclical recovery is under way in Thailand but has yet to become broad based. GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2017, boosted by strong tourism services and manufacturing exports. Domestic demand remained sluggish amid structural challenges, and export gains failed to trickle down to household incomes and investments in other sectors. Headline inflation averaged 0.7 percent, below the target band for the third year in a row, reflecting low food prices and weak core inflation. The current account surplus remained large, at about 10.6 percent of GDP. Financial system stability continued to strengthen. The growth momentum is expected to continue in 2018 and 2019, supported by sustained export dynamism.
Myanmar
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy stabilized in 2016/17. The new government saw a challenging first year with lower-than-expected growth of 5.9 percent in 2016/17 mainly owing to weak agriculture production and exports, and temporary suspension of some construction projects in Yangon. Inflation moderated to 6.8 percent, and the current account deficit fell to about 3.9 percent of GDP in 2016/17 from 5.1 percent 2015/16. The medium-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.7 percent in 2017/18 mainly supported by a recovering agriculture sector and exports. Higher fiscal spending anticipated in the second half of 2017/18 owing to buoyant tax revenues will also support growth.
Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization
Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets, improved financial prudential norms and supervision, and accumulated significant central bank reserves. Against this background, Uruguay now faces issues beyond those addressed to stabilize the economy. As the country pursues key postcrisis monetary and financial reforms, the analysis provided in this paper has a direct bearing on the ongoing efforts to move toward a fully fledged inflation-targeting regime and develop interest rates as monetary instruments, as well as on the preparedness of the financial system to deal with shocks, and the adequacy of current central bank reserves.
Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments
When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.
