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Interest Rate Liberalization in China
What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization will likely result in higher interest rates, discourage marginal investment, improve the effectiveness of intermediation and monetary transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. This can occur without any major disruption. International experience suggests, however, that achieving these benefits without unnecessary instability, requires vigilant supervision, governance, and monetary policy, and a flexible policy toolkit.
An End to China’s Imbalances?
Global imbalances have been a central theme of the international economic policy debate for much of the last decade, prompted by large and sustained current account deficits in the U.S. and counterpart surpluses in China, Germany, and among many of the oil producers. This paper focuses on the current state of the external imbalance in China, examining the factors underlying the post-2008 drop in China’s current account surplus and analyzing the prospects for the external surplus going forward. The paper finds that China’s current account surplus should remain modest in the coming years. However, despite the fact that China’s medium-term current account is likely to stay below its pre-crisis range, it is too early to conclude that "rebalancing" has been truly achieved in China. While imbalances do not currently seem to be manifesting themselves as a feature of China’s external accounts, the evidence increasingly points to a rising domestic imbalance as growth becomes increasingly dependent on very high levels of investment.
The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model
The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved? What is their relative importance? We address these questions using a multilayered global network model of contagion that simulates the impact of sovereign debt default on the global economy. We also develop a measure of global systemic risk and use bank stress testing techniques to quantify the systemic impact of the shock and the extent of contagion on the global economy. Our model shows that economic and financial contagion are highly non-linear, and many bystander economies can experience significant negative effects as the initial default is spread through the network. This suggests that many economies might be systemically more important than what conventional measures of size or openness might suggest.
Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?
Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities’ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China.Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have,a structural driver.
Are House Prices Rising too Fast in Hong Kong SAR?
Sharp increase in house prices in Hong Kong SAR in 2009-2010 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. According to our measure of price deviation from fundamentals, which should be taken as an early warning indicator of market exuberance, the current level of house prices in Hong Kong SAR does not seem to be significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. Moreover, unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, deviation from fundamentals has not been persistent in Hong Kong.Going forward, low interest rate and improving growth prospects, as well as a tight supply, particularly in the mass market, means that house price growth will continue to be strong.This is the period in which vulnerability may be accumulating, and tight prudential standards and fiscal measures will be required to tame price inflation.
Understanding Chinese Bond Yields and their Role in Monetary Policy
China's financial prices are informative enough for the PBC to introduce a monetary policy framework centered around interest rates. While bond yields are not fully efficient?reflecting regulation, liquidity, and segmentation?we find they contain considerable information about the state of the economy as well as evidence of an emerging transmission channel: changes in PBC rates influence the structure of Treasury, financial, and corporate bond yield curves, which are then associated with changes in growth and inflation. Coporate spreads are also a leading indicator of growth and inflation. While further liberalization will strengthen both efficiency and transmission, several necessary elements to move towards indirect monetary policy are already in place.
Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies
Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that in some circumstances managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macro-financial conditions. Effectiveness however does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences.
'Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies
This paper develops a new macrofinance model for small open economies, allowing the investigation of Mauritius's experience with 'inflation targeting lite' as described in Stone (2003). It finds that this monetary policy regime has been associated with a general reduction in inflation, principally through a reduction in inflation expectations. The credibility the Bank of Mauritius has established with its 'inflation targeting lite' regime has allowed it to shift from an emphasis on exchange rate targeting towards inflation targeting. By estimating a model in which the yield curve is modeled explicitly we are able to obtain estimates of inflation expectations.
Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies
This paper develops a new macrofinance model for small open economies, allowing the investigation of Mauritius's experience with 'inflation targeting lite' as described in Stone (2003). It finds that this monetary policy regime has been associated with a general reduction in inflation, principally through a reduction in inflation expectations. The credibility the Bank of Mauritius has established with its 'inflation targeting lite' regime has allowed it to shift from an emphasis on exchange rate targeting towards inflation targeting. By estimating a model in which the yield curve is modeled explicitly we are able to obtain estimates of inflation expectations.
