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Central Bank Independence and Macro-Prudential Regulation
We consider the optimality of various institutional arrangements for agencies that conduct macro-prudential regulation and monetary policy. When a central bank is in charge of price and financial stability, a new time inconsistency problem may arise. Ex-ante, the central bank chooses the socially optimal level of inflation. Ex-post, however, the central bank chooses inflation above the social optimum to reduce the real value of private debt. This inefficient outcome arises when macro-prudential policies cannot be adjusted as frequently as monetary. Importantly, this result arises even when the central bank is politically independent. We then consider the role of political pressures in the spirit of Barro and Gordon (1983). We show that if either the macro-prudential regulator or the central bank (or both) are not politically independent, separation of price and financial stability objectives does not deliver the social optimum.
Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions
Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, we consider two potential channels: (i) financial transaction costs at the firm level; and (ii) required return at the country level. We empirically investigate the effects of institutions on these financial frictions using a panel of 75,000 firm-years across 48 countries for the period 1990 - 2007. We find that improved corporate governance (e.g., less informational problems) and enhanced contractual enforcement reduce financial frictions, while stronger creditor rights (e.g., lower collateral constraints) are less important.
Income Distribution, Informal Safety Nets, and Social Expenditures in Uganda
Inequality in Uganda rose during 1989–95, although this rise moderated in 1993–95. In 1993–95, real food consumption became more equal. Regional and urban-rural disparities in income and variations in income accruing to individuals with different educational levels principally explain “between group inequality.” While informal safety nets appear to work for Ugandan middle-class families, a lack of mutual insurance among poor production workers and farmers accentuates the inequality trends. An expansion of formal safety nets would help this segment of the population. The intrasectoral allocation and benefit incidence of expenditures on education and health can be improved to reduce inequality.
Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth
We propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth, financial structure, and inequality, bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature. That is, we show how to conduct model-based quantitative research on transitional paths. With analytical and numerical methods, we calibrate and make tractable a prototype canonical model and take it to an application, namely, Thailand 1976-1996, an emerging economy in a phase of economic expansion with uneven financial deepening and increasing inequality. We broadly replicate the actual data, test the model formally, and identify anomalies.
Quantifying Structural Subsidy Values for Systemically Important Financial Institutions
Claimants to SIFIs receive transfers when governments are forced into bailouts. Ex ante, the bailout expectation lowers daily funding costs. This funding cost differential reflects both the structural level of the government support and the time-varying market valuation for such a support. With large worldwide sample of banks, we estimate the structural subsidy values by exploiting expectations of state support embedded in credit ratings and by using long-run average value of rating bonus. It was already sizable, 60 basis points, as of the end-2007, before the crisis. It increased to 80 basis points by the end-2009.
The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Bank Soundness
Unconventional monetary policy is often assumed to benefit banks. However, we find little supporting evidence. Rather, we find some evidence for heightened medium-term risks. First, in an event study using a novel instrument for monetary policy surprises, we do not detect clear effects of monetary easing on bank stock valuation but find a deterioration of medium-term bank credit risk in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. Second, in panel regressions using U.S. banks’ balance sheet information, we show that bank profitability and risk taking are ambiguously affected, while balance sheet repair is delayed.
Diplomatic List
Directory of foreign diplomatic officers in Washington.
Diplomatic List
Directory of foreign diplomatic officers in Washington.
