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The role of exchange rate flexibility in the periphery of the gold standard has been grossly overlooked. This paper builds a new dataset on trade-weighed exchange rates for the period 1870-1913 and finds that large currency movements in periphery countries operating inconvertible paper-money and silver-standard regimes induced major fluctuations in effective exchange rates worldwide. We relate the phenomenon to the international trade structure at the time and show that such currency fluctuations had powerful effects on trade flows. We conclude that nominal exchange rate flexibility in the periphery was an important ingredient of international payments adjustment under the gold standard.
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Develops a coherent and realistic legal framework which strengthens the human rights protection and the accountability mechanisms in peace operations.
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
An introduction to the study of history as a succession of economic regimes. This non-technical introduction is accessible to undergraduate students in economics and other social sciences, and, as such, aims at becoming a building block for undergraduate courses about the economic history of societies.
The period between the two World Wars was remarkable; mass unemployment, protectionism, diverse exchange rate regimes, the disintegration of world trade, poor growth prospects and high business cycle volatility. This comprehensive textbook surveys key questions arising from the British economy from 1919 to 1939: Why was unemployment so high? Did a fast transition to the pre-1913 gold parity lead to a low growth equilibrium? Why were interwar business cycles so volatile? Did tariffs stimulate economic recovery in the 1930s? A comparative approach is adopted throughout. For example, the question of gold parity is contrasted with countries that allowed their currencies to depreciate. The book is aimed primarily at students studying economic history. The book continually applies economic theory to historical examples enabling students to evaluate the relevance of competing theoretical frameworks.
We re-assess the view that sovereigns with a history of default are charged only a small and/or short-lived premium on the interest rate warranted by observed fundamentals. Our reassessment uses a metric of such a “default premium” (DP) that is consistent with asymmetric information models and nests previous metrics, and applies it to a much broader dataset relative to earlier studies. We find a sizeable and persistent DP: in 1870-1938, it averaged 250 bps upon market re-entry, tapering to around 150 bps five years out; in 1970- 2011 the respective estimates are about 400 and 200 bps. We also find that: (i) these estimates are robust to many controls including on actual haircuts; (ii) the DP accounts for as much as 60% of the sovereign spread within five years of market re-entry; (iii) the DP rises with market exclusion spells. These findings help reconnect theory and evidence on why sovereign defaults are infrequent and earlier debt settlements are desirable.
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