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Samoa
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Samoa’s economy has shown resilience and continues to perform well. Growth remained robust at 2.5 percent in 2016/17, driven by commerce, services and agriculture. Inflation picked up to 1.3 percent in 2016/17, compared with close to zero in the previous year, but remains well below the authorities’ target of 3 percent. The current account deficit narrowed to 2.3 percent, driven by temporary factors. The Samoan Tala appreciated against the United States dollar during 2016/17, although there was little change in the nominal and real effective exchange rates. Growth is projected to moderate to 1.8 percent in 2017/18 and then rebound in 2018/19, as two new businesses scale up operations at the old Yazaki plant and several infrastructure projects are completed.
Tonga
Tonga’s recovery following the devastation of the 2018 Cyclone Gita has been derailed by a double blow from the pandemic and Cyclone Harold. FY2020 GDP growth is estimated to fall to -21⁄2 percent due to domestic containment measures, a sudden stop in tourism, and investment delays. The full brunt of the pandemic will be felt in FY2021 (beginning July) during peak tourism season, when a deeper contraction is expected. A worse outcome was avoided by early actions to close external borders—which has kept Tonga COVID-19-free—and prompt economic support. Beyond FY2021, the recovery is expected to resume in line with the global recovery, but the magnitude and trajectory is uncertain.
Vanuatu
Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.
Solomon Islands
This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The three-year arrangement under the ECF is on track. All December 2012 and continuous performance criteria have been met, except for the cash balance floor, which was temporarily missed by a small amount. The indicative target on health and education for December 2012 was also missed by a very small margin. The IMF staff recommends completion of the review and supports the authorities’ request for a waiver of the nonobservance of the cash balance floor at end-December, and the modification of end-June 2013 performance criteria.
Republic of Fiji
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy is recovering well from several natural disasters, supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. Growth performance picked up in recent years with improved political stability, though average growth rates were still lower than in other emerging and developing countries. Fiscal buffers have been used and external conditions, including oil prices and growth prospects of main trading partners, are becoming less favorable. Improving the overall business environment and governance is expected to raise potential growth by mobilizing private investment, enhancing productivity, and diversifying the economy. An improvement in the overall business environment is essential to achieve the ambitious growth targets laid out in the National Development Plan. Streamlining procedures to do business, accelerating the activation of the credit reporting agency, and reducing tax compliance costs has been recommended.
Kiribati
Growth has been strong in recent years and some moderation is expected, with risks skewed to the downside. High fishing revenues improved the fiscal position, but generated pressure to increase spending. There has been progress on fiscal and structural reforms. Yet, public spending needs are large, driven by an infrastructure gap and climate adaptation costs, and the country remains at high risk of debt distress.
Financial Inclusion in Asia-Pacific
Asia has made significant progress in financial inclusion, but both its across-country and intra-country disparities are among the highest in the world. The gaps between the rich and the poor, rural and urban populations, and men and women remain deep. Income is the main determinant of the level of financial inclusion; but other factors, such as geography, financial sector structure, and policies, also play important roles. While some countries in the Asia-Pacific region are leaders in fintech, on average the region lags behind others in several important areas such as online (internet) purchases, electronic payments, mobile money, and mobile government transfers. This Departmental Paper aim...
Papua New Guinea
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for Staff Monitored Program. The economy is estimated to have rebounded in 2019 following the contraction triggered by the large earthquake in 2018. Inflation is projected to fall in 2019 but to pick up temporarily thereafter. The staff report reflects discussions with the PNG authorities in October 28–November 9, 2019 and is based on the information available as of November 21, 2019. It focuses on PNG near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring the situation and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in PNG and globally.
Republic of the Marshall Islands
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlight that growth in the Marshallese economy is estimated to have accelerated to about 3.5 percent in FY2017 (ending September 30) with a strong pick-up in fisheries and construction, with the latter owing to the resumption of infrastructure projects. Consumer prices started to rise again in mid-2017, with annual consumer price index inflation at 1.1 percent in 2017Q4. Growth is expected to remain robust at about 2.5 percent in FY2018 and about 1.5 percent over the medium term, underpinned by further increases in infrastructure spending. Inflation is expected to rise gradually to about 2 percent over the medium term.
Tuvalu: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tuvalu
Swift implementation of containment measures, limited spillovers from tourism, and COVID-related fiscal spending financed by buoyant fishing revenues and donor grants have allowed Tuvalu—a fragile Pacific micro-state—avoid a recession in 2020. The economy is expected to expand by 2.5 percent in 2021, supported by fiscal expenditures and resumption of infrastructure projects. But significant challenges remain: Tuvalu is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, its economy is dominated by the public sector, and its revenue base is narrow. Uncertainty around donor commitments complicates fiscal planning.
