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Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks
This paper considers the role of country-level opacity (the lack of availability of information) in amplifying shocks emanating from financial centers. We provide a simple model where, in the presence of ambiguity (uncertainty about the probability distribution of returns), prices in emerging markets react more strongly to signals from the developed market, the more opaque the emerging market is. The second contribution is empirical evidence for bond and equity markets in line with this prediction. Increasing the availability of information about public policies, improving accounting standards, and enhancing legal frameworks can help reduce the unpleasant side effects of financial globalization.
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks
This paper considers the role of country-level opacity (the lack of availability of information) in amplifying shocks emanating from financial centers. We provide a simple model where, in the presence of ambiguity (uncertainty about the probability distribution of returns), prices in emerging markets react more strongly to signals from the developed market, the more opaque the emerging market is. The second contribution is empirical evidence for bond and equity markets in line with this prediction. Increasing the availability of information about public policies, improving accounting standards, and enhancing legal frameworks can help reduce the unpleasant side effects of financial globalization.
Bank Ownership
This paper presents recent trends in bank ownership across countries and summarizes the evidence regarding the implications of bank ownership structure for bank performance and competition, financial stability, and access to finance. The evidence reviewed suggests that foreign-owned banks are more efficient than domestic banks in developing countries, promote competition in host banking sectors, and help stabilize credit when host countries face idiosyncratic shocks. But there are tradeoffs, since foreign-owned banks can transmit external shocks and might not always expand access to credit. The record on the impact of government bank ownership suggests few benefits, especially for developing countries.
When in Peril, Retrench
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors` risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors` risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds` returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were quot;overweight,quot; increasing their exposure to countries in which they were quot;underweight.quot; Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.
The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries
This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the develop...
How Foreign Participation and Market Concentration Impact Bank Spreads
Increasing foreign participation and high concentration levels characterize the recent evolution of banking sectors' market structures in developing countries. Martinez Peria and Mody analyze the impact of these factors on Latin American bank spreads during the late 1990s. Their results suggest that foreign banks were able to charge lower spreads relative to domestic banks. This was more so for de novo foreign banks than for those that entered through acquisitions. The overall level of foreign bank participation seemed to influence spreads indirectly, primarily through its effect on administrative costs. Bank concentration was positively and directly related to both higher spreads and costs. This paper--a product of Finance, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand banking sector market structure changes in developing countries.
Gender and Transport
The Bulletin is an annual peer-reviewed journal of the Transport and Tourism Division of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It provides a medium for the sharing of knowledge, experience, ideas, policy options and information on the development of transport infrastructure and services in the Asia-Pacific region. This edition is devoted to issue related to women and transport. Six articles included in the publication share views on gender issues in transport based on the outcome of research and analytical studies and experiences from a number of countries, and discuss important policy issues related to the subject.
Rethinking Financial Deepening
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
