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Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate
We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate—i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potential and constant inflation. An important implication of our analysis is that increased competition in goods and labor market since the 1970s can help explain both the large increase in real interest rates up to the mid-1980s and—as globalization forces mature and may even go into reverse, leading to incrementally rising market power—its subsequent and protracted decline accompanied by lower inflation. The analysis has important implications for monetary policy and the optimal pace of normalization.
Dollar Overvaluation and the World Economy
This report provides alternative views of how large a dollar depreciation would be needed to restore a sustainable position; analyzes the impact of currency misalignments on each of the three major economies; and discusses the role of exchange market intervention in addressing the issues.
The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update
The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.
Singapore
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the robust recovery from the global financial crisis, Singapore’s growth momentum has eased and become more erratic. Growth decelerated to 11⁄4 percent in 2012 before picking up sharply in the first half of 2013. This reflects shifts in G3 (U.S., Europe, and Japan) demand and global risk appetite. At the same time, the current account surplus narrowed sharply to a still-high 181⁄2 percent of GDP in 2012. The near-term outlook is for GDP to grow by 31⁄2 percent in 2013-2014, supported by stronger demand from major advanced economies, despite some softening in regional economies.
External Assessments in Special Cases
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
Doing Business 2014
Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulations in 189 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity around the world.
Doing Business 2013
Tenth in a series of annual reports comparing business regulations in 185 economies, Doing Business 2013 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity around the world.
Doing Business 2012
Ninth in a series of annual reports comparing business regulations in 183 economies, Doing Business 2012 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: starting a business dealing with construction permits employing workers registering property getting credit protecting investors paying taxes trading across borders enforcing contracts closing a business getting electricity The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2011, ranks countries on their overall "ease of doing business", and analyzes reforms to business regulation identifying which countries are strengthening their business environment the most. Doing Business 2012 includes a new set of indicators on the ...
L'abbaye Notre-Dame de la Réau O.S.A.
Cet ouvrage est une réédition numérique d’un livre paru au XXe siècle, désormais indisponible dans son format d’origine.
Switzerland
This Article IV Consultation reports that Switzerland’s exchange rate floor, seen as credible by the markets, has halted appreciation and helped shore up the economy. Once growth recovers and inflation reaches more comfortable levels, maintaining the exchange rate commitment risks stoking inflation and hence, a return to free floating would be desirable. The risk of a real estate bubble has been heightened by loose monetary conditions, and new macroprudential instruments are under consideration to address this risk.
