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Assessing the contribution of PIM to strengthening the capacity of developing country representatives to represent their interests in trade negotiations related to agriculture
The purpose of this review is to assess the extent to which the research outputs of Flagship 3, cluster on The Policy Environment for Value Chains (cluster 3.1) of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) have been used to inform decisions and behaviors of representatives of government organizations, development agencies, researchers, donors, private firms, nongovernment organizations, and other users. The assessment both reviews the achievement of past milestones as well as looks forward to how re-searchers should support the trade agenda in developing countries going forward through their research and communication of research and what should be the focus in ...
Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference
This publication-a joint effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)-is being released in the context of growing changes and fragmentation in global economic and trade relationships. Countries are increasingly adopting protectionist measures in response to recent crises and the decreased competitiveness of value chains, due to rising production, marketing and transportation costs. The complex multilateral trade system and the urgent need to implement concrete actions in this area are prompting countries to work towards the adoption of new standards that aim to protect and preserve the environment bu...
Modeling the impacts of agricultural support policies on emissions from agriculturModeling the impacts of agricultural support policies on emissions from agriculture
To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In a step towards a full evaluation of the impacts, it uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of some emission-intensive activities and agricultural emissions would be smaller. Without agricultural trade protection, however, emissi...
Honduras: The impact of COVID-19 and other shocks, and policy implications: Final report
Two previous reports (Díaz Bonilla, Laborde and Piñeiro, 2021, and Diaz-Bonilla, Flores, Paz, Piñeiro, and Zandstra, 2021) covered the evolution and impacts of the pandemic on food systems in Honduras until the time of their writings (which together cover from the start of the pandemic in early 2020 until October 2021). This third report concludes the assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems in Honduras, recapitulating the previous ones and updating the analysis until the end of May 2022. This country and its food systems, however, have been also affected by other events since the pandemic started in early 2020, such as the tropical storms Eta and Iota in November...
Guatemala: The impact of COVID-19 and preliminary policy implications: Interim report
As most countries in the world Guatemala has been affected by COVID-19. In January 2020 the country decreed travel bans from China, which were later expanded to other countries. Still, Guatemala had the first confirmed COVID case in March 13 and the first death in March 15. Some days before that, on March 5, the government had declared the “state of calamity” (Declaración del Estado de Calamidad Pública - Decreto Gubernativo Número 5-2020), which allowed the government to limit different rights, and to take different actions to protect the health and safety of all persons in Guatemala. This brief note covers the following topics until the time of this report. First, it shows the evolu...
Exchange rates, remittances, and competitiveness in Haiti
The exchange rate (ER) is one of the most important macroeconomic variables in the economy, defining the price of the domestic currency in relation to a foreign currency or currencies. The level and changes (both actual and expected) of the ER (nominal and real, defined below) have wide influence throughout the economy, affecting and being affected by the demand and supply of traded and nontraded goods and services, the demand and supply of money and monetary assets denominated in local currency in comparison with assets denominated in other currencies, and inflows or outflows of capitals and remittances, among main key variables. In consequence, the ER and ER policies influence growth, employment, inflation, international trade, and banking and fiscal stability (a classical general treatment can be found in Krueger 1983; see also Corden 1990).
Honduras: The impact of COVID-19 and preliminary policy implications: Interim report
Due to the global pandemic generated by the COVID-19 the government of Honduras declared “state of emergency” in Feburay (“Estado de Emergencia en el Territorio Nacional a través del Decreto Ejecutivo Número PCM- 005-2020, 10 de febrero 2020). The country suffered the first confirmed COVID-19 case on March 12th, 2020. The first death was registered on March 26th. This short note covers the following topics until the time of this report. First, it shows the evolution of the pandemic, using different indicators. Second, it summarizes the main policy responses and costs and financing implied. Third, it shows some actual impacts with available data. Fourth, the modeling framework for the simulations is briefly presented. Fifth, it simulates different scenarios for the evolution of the Honduras’ economy until year 2022. A final section discusses some preliminary policy considerations. Subsequent reports will update the information of this document and sharpen de policy conclusions.
Honduras: The impact of covid-19 and policy implications: Second report
Due to the global pandemic generated by COVID-19 the government of Honduras declared a “state of emergency” in February (“Estado de Emergencia en el Territorio Nacional a través del Decreto Ejecu-tivo Número PCM- 005-2020, 10 de febrero 2020). The country suffered the first confirmed COVID-19 case on March 12th, 2020. The first death was registered on March 26, 2020. This document updates a previous report (Díaz Bonilla, Laborde, and Piñeiro, 2021) on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems in Honduras. First, it brings up to date the evolution of the pandemic, using different indicators. Second, it summarizes the main policy responses, costs, and fi-nancing. Third, it updates the evolution of key variables up to the time of this writing (June 2021). Fourth, there is a more detailed analysis of the evolution of some food value chains that are central for food consumption in Honduras. Fifth, main results for 2021 and 2022 of previous modeling work are briefly presented. A final section discusses policy considerations in light of the updated analysis.
Prioritization of types of investments: Operational tools for MCC agricultural investments
This report answers the question: “What guidelines can be used to identify the types of agricultural investments that have the highest economic return, where “agriculture” is broadly defined to include primary production, handling, storage, transportation, distribution, processing, and retailing?” Using the literature and MCC’s ERR analyses, we explain how agricultural investments fit in a wider development context, identify information useful to MCC’s decision making that is not provided by the ERR analyses, and suggest IFPRI tools for exploratory and ex-ante evaluative analysis that MCC can use in their decision-making process.
External shocks, food security, and development
We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run unde...
