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The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 20...
The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet, the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing, policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 203...
Inflation Dynamic
This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking ...
OPEC’s Dilemma and the Future of Oil
The UN’s Net Zero goal is to limit the rise in mean global temperatures to 1.5°C by 2050. They suggested that it could be achieved by reducing global emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and then to zero by 2050. This book is a new stress test in applied econometric analysis of oil-producing countries. It includes a positive economic analysis using a sample of 11 OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations from 1970 to 2019; and presents an empirical analysis of OPEC’s operating model – the state-owned oil monopoly, hence its dilemma. The book estimates a production function for every OPEC nation and then uses counterfactual scenarios to show that OPEC 's strategy to peg t...
Nominal Exchange Rates and Nominal Interest Rate Differentials
This paper reexamines some unsettled theoretical and empirical issues regarding the relationship between nominal exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides a model for the behavior of exchange rates in the long run, where interest rates are determined in the bond market. The model predicts that an increase in the interest rate differential appreciates the home currency. We test the model for the U.S. dollar against the Deutsche mark, the British pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar. The first two pairs of exchange rates—for which purchasing power parity seems to hold—display a strong relationship with interest rate differentials.
Foreign Direct Investments in Emerging Asia
Foreign direct investments (FDI) play an integral role in the growth story of Emerging Asian economies. As an essential source of foreign capital, FDI bolsters the path to economic recovery from recessions, including the one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is a collection of essays investigating the reconfiguration of FDI flows to the Emerging Asian economies of ASEAN, China and India following the pandemic and FDI policy reforms. This book broadly covers the trends in greenfield FDI flows to Emerging Asia in the context of three pertinent themes. Part I explores the rebalancing effects in global FDI flows after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the experience of Emerging Asian e...
Demography and Infrastructure
Population ageing has been going on for many decades, but population shrinking is a rather new phenomenon. The population of Germany, as in many other countries, has passed a plateau and is currently shrinking. Demographic change is a challenge for infrastructure planning due to the longevity of infrastructure capital and the need to match supply and demand in order to ensure cost-efficiency. This book summarises the findings of the INFRADEM project team, a multidisciplinary research group that worked together to estimate the effects of demographic change on infrastructure demand. Economists, engineers and geographers present studies from top-down and bottom-up perspectives, focusing on Germany and two selected regions: Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The contributors employed a broad range of methods, including an overlapping-generations model for Germany, regional input-output models, an energy systems model, and a spatial model of the transportation infrastructure.
COVID-19 and European Banking Performance
The monograph presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on European banking, both at a macro and a micro level. It analyses the impact of the pandemic on bank stability, performance and credit policies, as well as their strategic adjustments to the challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial chapters analyze the various governmental responses to the pandemic. Topics of discussion include the scale and scope of the wide range of public policies undertaken to mitigate the consequences of the crisis, and their efficiency in limiting the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy. The results suggest that the extensive public interventions ha...
Ethical Finance and Prosperity
The debate on connections between economic activity and socio-environmental impact has become increasingly relevant. As a result, ethical finance is emerging from its niche. However, the terms "ethical finance" and "sustainable finance" are often confused and overlapping, and the risk of greenwashing is high. Many authors suggest the need of a paradigm shift because the present economic system is no longer able to maintain a safe environment. Tim Jackson explicitly argues about the need of a future of "prosperity without growth". From the experiences of ethical finance, we can identify some interesting tools to achieve that goal. This book explains how ethical finance works and which innovat...
The Use of New York Cotton Futures Contracts to Hedge Cotton Price Risk in Developing Countries
New York cotton futures and options contracts provide an effective way to reduce cotton price volatility, despite relatively high basis risk.
