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IMF Conditionality and Structural Reforms
The global economy, dominated by the consequences of a disastrous health crisis and international tensions, needs policy support to regain its growth dynamic. To regain an inclusive and sustainable growth dynamic, structural policies of governments are needed to allow a reallocation of resources and to stimulate productivity. International cooperation seems to be necessary, and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) contribution could play an important role in promoting reforms. Indeed, in IMF-supported programmes, the conditions for developing countries' transition to liberalization and open markets are often common. In this paper, we address the question of whether periods of IMF conditio...
Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries?
This paper investigates the performance of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries (RRC). Using panel data for 57 commodity exporting countries from 1976 to 2021, we find that fiscal rules: (i) reduce the procyclicality of real public expenditures with terms of trade in oil exporting countries, and (ii) improve non-resource primary balances in all RRC, especially during terms of trade upturns. The rules’ design matters. Addressing the procyclicality of public expenditures with terms-of-trade can be achieved with expenditure rules, and, for oil-exporters, revenue rules (althoug limited data on the latter calls for taking the results cautiously). To improve non-resource fiscal balances, debt...
Trinidad and Tobago
Selected Issues
Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate
This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel cointegration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation effect-almost seven times that of foreign direct investment or bank loans-and private transfers have the lowest effect. Using a de facto measure of exchange rate flexibility, we find that a more flexible exchange rate helps to dampen appreciation of the real exchange rate stemming from capital inflows.
Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a pronounced setback in the fight against global poverty—likely the largest setback since World War II. Many low- and middle-income countries have yet to see a full recovery. High indebtedness in many countries has hindered a swift recovery, while rising food and energy prices—fueled in part by conflict and climate shocks—have made a return to progress on poverty reduction more challenging than ever. These setbacks have altered the trajectory of poverty reduction in large and lasting ways. The world is significantly off course on the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030.The year 2020 also marked a historic turning point as decades of global income conv...
Is Digital Financial Inclusion Unlocking Growth?
Digital financial services have been a key driver of financial inclusion in recent years. While there is evidence that financial inclusion through traditional services has a positive impact on economic growth, do the same results carry over for digital financial inclusion? What drives digital financial inclusion? Why does it advance more in some countries but not in others? Using new indices of financial inclusion developed in Khera et. al. (2021), this paper addresses these questions for 52 developing countries. Using cross-sectional instrument variable procedure, we find that the exogenous component of digital financial inclusion is positively associated with growth in GDP per capita during 2011-2018, which suggests that digital financial inclusion can accelerate economic growth. Fractional logit and random effects empirical estimation identifies access to infrastructure, financial and digital literacy, and quality of institutions as key drivers of digital financial inclusion. These findings are then used to help inform policy recommendations in areas related to the digitization of financial services to promote financial inclusion.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2021
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.
Economic Growth in the 1990s
This report was prepared by a team led by Roberto Zagha, under the general direction of Gobind Nankani.
Continuity and Change in Public Policy and Management
This vivid book of 'continuity and change' in policy and management by Pollitt and Bouckaert follows in the footsteps of Pollitt's previous book on the issue of time, a vital but often neglected issue.
Imposing Standards
The problem with tax treaties -- A history of developing countries in (and out of) global tax governance -- Turning the tables: the competition discourse and north-south relations -- OECD knows best: the expert view of tax treaties -- The United Kingdom -- Zambia -- Vietnam and Cambodia -- Historical legacies in a rapidly changing world.
