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Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe
Three years after the COVID-19 crisis, employment and total hours worked in Europe fully recovered, but average hours per worker did not. We analyze the decline in average hours worked across European countries and find that (i) it is not cyclical but predominantly structural, extending a long-term trend that predates COVID-19, (ii) it mainly reflects reduced hours within worker groups, not a compositional shift towards lower-hours jobs and workers, (iii) men—particularly those with young children—and youth drive this drop, (iv) declines in actual hours match declines in desired hours. Policy reforms could help involuntary parttimers and women with young children raise their actual hours towards desired levels, but the aggregate impact on average hours would be limited to 0.5 to 1.5 percent. Overall, there is scant evidence of slack at the intensive margin in European labor markets, and the trend fall in average hours worked seems unlikely to reverse.
Transparency, Risk Management and International Financial Fragility
Discussions of the role of derivatives and their risks, as well as discussions of financial risks in general, often fail to distinguish between risks that are taken consciously and ones that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises, the prime source of concern is not risk per se, but the unintended, or unanticipated accumulation of risks by individuals, institutions or governments including the concealing of risks from stakeholders and overseers of those entities. This report, the fourth in the ICMB/CEPR series of Geneva Reports on the World Economy, analyses specific situations in which significant unanticipated and unintended financial risks can accumulate. The f...
Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union
We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks, through endogenous TFP movements, can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated when member countries have different product and labor market regulations. Less regulated economies are likely to have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment and disappointing TFP growth rates experienced in the less reform-friendly euro area members.
The Economic Effects of Constitutions
The authors of The Economic Effects of Constitutions use econometric tools to study what they call the "missing link" between constitutional systems and economic policy; the book is an uncompromisingly empirical sequel to their previous theoretical analysis of economic policy. Taking recent theoretical work as a point of departure, they ask which theoretical findings are supported and which are contradicted by the facts. The results are based on comparisons of political institutions across countries or time, in a large sample of contemporary democracies. They find that presidential/parliamentary and majoritarian/proportional dichotomies influence several economic variables: presidential regi...
International Trade and Sustainability
This book examines how international trade can be utilised to build a sustainable future. It highlights how international trade and climate regimes can work together to put in place a Green New Deal. The potential of mega-regional trade agreements to aid climate change mitigation and power the energy transition is explored in relation to the energy section, with a particular focus on clean technology. Broader perspectives are provided by an analysis of international trading systems in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands and a review of climate change law and policy in Brazil, Russia, India, and China. This book aims to provide an interdisciplinary understanding of how green trade can be achieved. It will be relevant to researchers and policymakers interested in international trade and environmental economics.
Pandemic Politics
How the politicization of the pandemic endangers our lives—and our democracy COVID-19 has killed more people than any war or public health crisis in American history, but the scale and grim human toll of the pandemic were not inevitable. Pandemic Politics examines how Donald Trump politicized COVID-19, shedding new light on how his administration tied the pandemic to the president’s political fate in an election year and chose partisanship over public health, with disastrous consequences for all of us. Health is not an inherently polarizing issue, but the Trump administration’s partisan response to COVID-19 led ordinary citizens to prioritize what was good for their “team” rather t...
European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by far the largest shock to European economies since World War II. Yet, astonishingly, the EU unemployment rate had already declined to its pre-crisis level by 2021Q3, and in some countries the labor force participation rate is at a record high. This paper documents that the widespread use of job retention schemes has played an essential role in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on labor markets and thereby facilitating the restart of European economies after the initial lockdowns.
Inflation Expectations
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is...
Working Paper Series
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The European Central Bank and the European Macroeconomic Constitution
The book is about money, central banking and constitutions. It explains how the European Central Bank was established to ensure stability and prosperity for the euro area. The ECB was guided and controlled by a coherent European Macroeconomic Constitution. However, this model has failed during recurring crises, and the ECB has started to act as the euro area fire brigade. Consequently, it is pushing the boundaries of monetary policy, and with that challenging the accountability mechanisms and fundamentally also the democratic legitimacy of the EMU. The book sheds light on this complex economic-constitutional setting with a view on the future. The imbalance between various new operations and a single price stability objective is difficult to remedy. New objectives of financial stability, economic adjustment and environmental sustainability can cause fundamental ruptures between the ECB's formal role and its actions, and they also dangerously overburden monetary policy moving forward with substantial risks.
