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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equil...
World Economic Outlook, April 2010
The global economic recovery is progressing better than expected, but the speed of recovery varies, as outlined in the April 2010 World Economic Outlook. Some countries, notably in Asia, are off to a strong start, but growth in others is constrained by lasting damage to the financial sector and to household balance sheets. The challenge for policymakers is to ensure a smooth transition of demand, while maintaining supports that promote growth and employment. There is also a need to contain and reduce public debt and repair and reform the financial sector. This issue of the WEO also explores two other key challenges in the wake of the Great Recession: how to spur job creation in the face of likely high and persistent unemployment in advanced economies, and how countries that previously ran large current account surpluses or deficits can promote growth by rebalancing external and domestic demand.
Pay Without Performance
The company is under-performing, its share price is trailing, and the CEO gets...a multi-million-dollar raise. This story is familiar, for good reason: as this book clearly demonstrates, structural flaws in corporate governance have produced widespread distortions in executive pay. Pay without Performance presents a disconcerting portrait of managers' influence over their own pay--and of a governance system that must fundamentally change if firms are to be managed in the interest of shareholders. Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried demonstrate that corporate boards have persistently failed to negotiate at arm's length with the executives they are meant to oversee. They give a richly detailed acco...
