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Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest in Brazil
This paper applies the Holston-Laubach-Williams methodology to estimate the natural rate of interest for Brazil.
Inflation Expectations and the Phillips Curve
This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), hybrid Phillips curve (HPC) and sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows us to derive tests for these models within a single framework. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, the evidence suggests that the restrictions implied by the NKPC, HPC, and SIPC are rejected for the U.S. during the Great Moderation. Only the restrictions implied by the APC are not rejected. When we use methods that are robust to the issue of weak instruments in GMM, the confidence regions are so wide that it is not possible to reject any models' restrictions, meaning that the evidence is consistent with all four models of inflation dynamics.
The Trade-off Between Inflation and Economic Activity in Brazil
This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), and the sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows us to derive tests for these models within a single framework. According to the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, the evidence suggests that the restrictions implied by the NKPC, HPC and SIPC are rejected for the period after the Real Plan in Brazil. Only the restrictions implied by the APC are not rejected. However, when we construct confidence regions that are robust to weak instruments, it is not possible to reject any of the Phillips curve specifications, including the NKPC.
Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Brazil
In this article we use the theory of conditional forecasts to develop a new Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for Brazil and compare it to the ones constructed using the methodologies suggested by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) and Batini and Turnbull (2002). We use Sims and Zha (1999) and Waggoner and Zha (1999) approaches to develop and compute Bayesian error bands for the MCIs. The new indicator we develop is called the Conditional Monetary Conditions Index (CMCI) and is constructed using, alternatively, Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) and Forward-Looking (FL) models. The CMCI is the forecasted output gap, conditioned on observed values of the nominal interest rate (the Selic rate) and...
Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brasil After the Real Plan
This article investigates the stochastic and dynamic relationship of a group of Brazilian macroeconomic variables (price and industrial production indexes, nominal exchange rate, short and medium-run nominal interest rates) for the period after the Real Plan (1996-2004). We adopt, as has become usual in the literature, several SVAR (structural VAR) models to uncover stylized facts for the short-run impacts of the identified exogenous sources of fluctuations of this selected set of variables. A distinctive feature of this article is the employment of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to obtain the contemporaneous causal order of the variables used to identify the SVAR models. Another distinguishi...
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary policy normalization on portfolio capital flows to Emerging Markets Economies (EME) explicitly taking into account the unconventional US monetary policy. We build an econometric model of the drivers of capital flows to EMEs and the results suggest that Brazil maybe less vulnerable than EMEs to changes in US monetary policy.
Wonderkid
“Aku pernah menangis suatu kali ketika malam tiba, tetapi saat ayahku datang, segera kuhapus air mata itu. Aku tak ingin siapa pun tahu rasa sakit yang kurasakan ” Begitulah kata-kata yang sempat diucapkan oleh seorang anak kecil ketika ia harus berjuang untuk sembuh dari kelainan hormon pertumbuhan yang dideritanya. Perjuangannya pun tak sia-sia. Ia sembuh dari penyakit tersebut dan menunjukkan bakat luar biasanya di sepak bola. Puncaknya, anak yang bernama Lionel Messi tersebut akhirnya dinobatkan menjadi pemain terbaik dunia empat kali berturut-turut. Banyak kisah-kisah inspiratif yang dapat diambil dari para pemain sepak bola sebelum menikmati kesuksesan. Mereka sempat melalui berbagai fase sulit dalam hidup. Berbagai cobaan sering kali dihadapi baik di dalam maupun di luar lapangan. Mereka harus terus berjuang dan pantang menyerah. Kisah-kisah inspiratif dari 25 talenta muda sepak bola dunia terangkum dalam buku ini. Mereka telah meraih sukses sebelum usianya melebihi 25 tahun. Segera ikuti kisah-kisahnya dan semoga Anda terinspirasi. SALAM BE CHAMPION
Dynamic Optimization and Learning
Model formulation; A formal analysis of the trade-off between optimization and learning; The general multiperiod problem; Monte Carlo simulation; Random prices and estimation bias.
