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Mauritius
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Mauritius is responding to structural reform efforts. Tax reform, together with improvements in the business environment and investment initiatives, has spurred foreign investment to unprecedented levels and accelerated growth. The external current account deficit has eased but remains high on investment-driven import growth. The exchange rate appreciated 17 percent in real effective terms in the 12 months ending February 2008 from an overly depreciated level in 2005–06. Mauritius’s medium-term outlook has turned more favorable with the effects of the reform effort.
Institutions, Politics and Fiscal Policy
Rolf R. Strauch and Jiirgen von Hagen Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn; ZEI, University of Bonn, Indiana University, and CEPR The large and persistent deficits, rising levels of debt and growing levels of public spending observed in many DECO economies during the past 25 years have stimulated much theoretical and empirical research on the political economy of public finance. Although a number of issues have been studied extensively, certain areas are still at an exploratory stage and need further theorizing and thorough empirical research. During the last two decades, the theoretical debate on budgeting has been dominated by the controversy between partisan a...
Ghana
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Ghana continued at a robust pace of 8 percent in 2012 amid rising fiscal and external imbalances. Fiscal pressures came to the fore in a mounting public sector wage bill and costly energy subsidies that pushed the deficit close to 12 percent of GDP. The growth momentum continues into 2013, with increased oil production projected to keep overall GDP growth close to 8 percent. Non-oil growth is likely to decelerate, however, as a result of energy disruptions and high real interest rates.
On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework
Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy make...
Zambia
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Zambian economy has performed well in recent years and showed some resilience to the recent global recession. Growth in 2009 is now projected at 5.3 percent, in line with the average for recent years, as the slowdown in the tertiary sector was compensated by a significant increase in copper production and a bumper crop. Executive Directors have commended the Zambian authorities for their prudent macroeconomic management, observing that the Zambian economy has proven resilient to the global economic crisis.
Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System
We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to mone...
The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models
Simple macroeconomic frameworks like the IS/LM have survived because they help us conceptualize complex problems while also providing ‘back of the envelope’ estimates of macroeconomic outcomes. Herein, a bare-bones New Keynesian extension of the IS/LM model yields solutions for core macro variables (output gap, inflation, interest rate, real exchange rate misvaluation)—expressed in percent. We then extend that standard model to also generate a corresponding set of demand-side elements—expressed in currency units. A key aim of the paper is to reconcile these two metrics in ways that also aid communication and intuition—including through IS/LM-style graphs.
Finance in Africa
The Finance in Africa report emphasises the challenges faced by the African banking sector — including the impact of recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and the importance of gender diversity in business and banking. The report also discusses the need for international support and sustainable finance to advance economic development and climate change in Africa. It provides insights into the financial conditions, banking sector performance, and investment trends in the region. It covers the nature of climate finance flows in Africa and the degree of climate risk on bank balance sheets. With the right measures in place, Africa has the potential to overcome its challenges and unlock its true economic potential.
Zambia
This Selected Issues paper assesses the sustainability of Zambia’s current fiscal policies and public debt. Large fiscal imbalances and rapid increase in government debt since 2011 have raised concern about the sustainability of fiscal policies in Zambia. Fueled by the rapid exchange rate depreciation in 2014–15 and the heavy reliance on external sources to finance the growing fiscal imbalances, public external debt doubled in 2015 compared with 2014. The institutional framework for the budget process and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework need to be strengthened. Poor commitment controls, which led to significant accumulation of payment arrears, need to be addressed. A sound Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy is required to reduce public sector debt vulnerability.
Republic of Congo
Republic of Congo: Selected Issues
