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Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Affordable Rental Housing: Making It Part of Europe’s Recovery
Many European economies have faced pressure from rental housing affordability that has widened social and economic divergence. While significant country and regional differences exist, this departmental paper finds that in many advanced European economies a large and rising share of low-income renters, the young, and those living in cities is overburdened. In several locations, middle-income groups also increasingly face rental affordability issues.
Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries
This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. External debt carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. Consistent with majority views, fiscal consolidations are counterproductive in the short and medium runs. When an economy approaches its fiscal limits, government spending can be less expansionary than in a low-debt state. As more revenue is required to service debt in a high-debt state, higher tax rates raise the economic cost of increasing consumption, reducing the fiscal multiplier.
In Defense of Public Debt
Debt in service of the state -- States and the limits of borrowing -- Democratization and globalization -- Caveat emptor -- Managing problem debts -- Successful consolidation -- Warfare to welfare -- Cycles of debt -- Oil and water -- Missed opportunities -- Debt to the rescue -- COVID-19.
Bosnia and Herzegovina-Republika Srpska
There have been significant improvements in public investment management (PIM) in Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska (RS) over the last decade and the legal and institutional design is now ahead of many regional comparators. The effectiveness of the PIM framework is lagging behind its design, and continued strong and consistent reform efforts will be important to eliminate remaining obstacles to efficient public investment. Many of these reforms are already underway or planned.
Iceland
Iceland: Selected Issues
Denmark: Selected Issues
Denmark: Selected Issues
Republic of Latvia
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s government revenues overperformed in 2017, buoyed by strong economic activity and wage growth. Nonetheless, the 2017 general government structural balance recorded a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP, which resulted in a positive fiscal impulse rendering fiscal policy procyclical. Despite the suspension of activities of Latvia’s third largest bank on money laundering concerns, the banking system remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital-to-risk-weighted assets of 22.4 percent and liquid assets exceeding 80 percent of short-term liabilities at end-March 2018. Deleveraging of both households and nonfinancial corporations continued, with household debt to income now at half of its pre-crisis levels.
Africa's Pulse Spring 2016
Africa s Pulse is a biannual publication containing an analysis of the near-term macro-economic outlook for the region. It also includes a section focusing on a topic that represents a particular development challenges for the continent. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region.This issue is an analysis of issues shaping Africa's economic future. Growth remains stable in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries are seeing a slowdown, but the region's economic prospects remain broadly favorable. External risks of higher global financial market volatility and lower growth in emerging market economies weigh on the downside. In several Sub-Saharan African countries, la...
