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Uncertain Judgements
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain ...
The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry. This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical & Health Sciences; Industry, Economics & Finance; Environment & Ecology; Policy, Political & Social Sciences; and Natural & Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.
Probability
This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.
Julian Assange: The Unauthorised Autobiography
In December 2010, Julian Assange signed a contract with Canongate Books to write a book - part memoir, part manifesto - for publication the following year. At the time, Julian said: 'I hope this book will become one of the unifying documents of our generation. In this highly personal work, I explain our global struggle to force a new relationship between the people and their governments.' In the end, the work was to prove too personal. Despite sitting for more than fifty hours of taped interviews discussing his life and the work of WikiLeaks with the writer he had enlisted to help him, Julian became increasingly troubled by the thought of publishing an autobiography. After reading the first ...
The Atlantic Ocean
Reflections on topics from war and crime to pop culture, in “a stunning collection . . . from the best essayist of his generation” (The New York Times). For more than two decades, Andrew O’Hagan has been publishing celebrated essays on both sides of the Atlantic. The Atlantic Ocean highlights the best of his clear-eyed, brilliant work, including his first published essay, a reminiscence of his working-class Scottish upbringing; an extraordinary piece about the lives of two soldiers, one English, one American, both of whom died in Iraq on May 2, 2005; and a piercing examination of the life of William Styron. O’Hagan’s subjects range from the rise of the tabloids to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, from the trajectory of the Beatles to the impossibility of not fancying Marilyn Monroe—in essays that are “stupendously unflinching, bursting with possibility” (Booklist, starred review). “A brilliant essayist, [O’Hagan] constructs sentences that pierce like pinpricks.” —Publishers Weekly, starred review
Patrick: the Irish Immigrant
Patrick: The Irish Immigrant is the story of a determined Irish lad who dreamed of a better life of opportunities in America. By the age of seventeen, Patrick J. O'Shea had saved enough money to buy passage to the United States. Upon his arrival in New York City, Patrick used his ambition and determination, mixed with a dash of Irish malarkey, to set himself up with a job and a new life. This recipe served him well throughout his adventures that led him from New York City to the Territory of Hawaii and throughout the world. Along the way, Patrick married the love of his life, Arabell. Together they raised their family against the backdrop of World War II and other life-changing historical events. Patrick's life story is the universal story of many immigrants to the United States of America. He came, he prospered, and he proudly became a U.S. citizen. Patrick wanted his story told to encourage others to persevere despite obstacles and setbacks, to do one's best at any task, and to always conduct oneself with honor and dignity.
Tales from the Colony Room
'Entertaining, shocking, uproarious, hilarious . . . like eavesdropping on a wake, as the mourners get gradually more drunk and tell ever more outrageous stories' Sunday Times This is the definitive history of London's most notorious drinking den, the Colony Room Club in Soho. It’s a hair-raising romp through the underbelly of the post-war scene: during its sixty-year history, more romances, more deaths, more horrors and more sex scandals took place in the Colony than anywhere else. Tales from the Colony Room is an oral biography, consisting of previously unpublished and long-lost interviews with the characters who were central to the scene, giving the reader a flavour of what it was like ...
Kendalls Advanced Theory of Statistics, 3 Volume Set
This 3-volume set offers the complete, classic Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics in a single, value-for-money pack. The latest set includes the brand new second edition of the popular 'Volume 2B: Bayesian Inference', along with the sixth editions of 'Volume 1: Distribution Theory' and 'Volume 2A: Classical Inference and the Linear Model'.
The Routledge Handbook of Translation and Technology
The Routledge Handbook of Translation and Technology provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of the dynamically evolving relationship between translation and technology. Divided into five parts, with an editor's introduction, this volume presents the perspectives of users of translation technologies, and of researchers concerned with issues arising from the increasing interdependency between translation and technology. The chapters in this Handbook tackle the advent of technologization at both a technical and a philosophical level, based on industry practice and academic research. Containing over 30 authoritative, cutting-edge chapters, this is an essential reference and resource for those studying and researching translation and technology. The volume will also be valuable for translators, computational linguists and developers of translation tools.
Eight Hours from England
Autumn 1943. Realising his feelings for his sweetheart are not reciprocated, Major John Overton accepts a posting behind enemy lines in Nazi-occupied Albania. Arriving to find the situation in disarray, Overton attempts to overcome geographical challenges and political intrigues to set up a new camp in teh mountains overlooking the Adriatic. As he struggles to complete his mission amidst a chaotic backdrop, Overton is left to ruminate on loyalty, comradship and the futility of war.
