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This major revision contains a largely new chapter 7 providing an extensive discussion of the bivariate and multivariate versions of the standard distributions and families. Chapter 16 has been enlarged to cover mulitvariate sampling theory, an updated version of material previously found in the old Volume 3. The previous chapters 7 and 8 have been condensed into a single chapter providing an introduction to statistical inference. Elsewhere, major updates include new material on skewness and kurtosis, hazard rate distributions, the bootstrap, the evaluation of the multivariate normal integral and ratios of quadratic forms. This new edition includes over 200 new references, 40 new exercises and 20 further examples in the main text. In addition, all the text examples have been given titles and these are listed at the front of the book for easier reference.
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain ...
This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.
Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry. This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical & Health Sciences; Industry, Economics & Finance; Environment & Ecology; Policy, Political & Social Sciences; and Natural & Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.
In the midst of allegations about his personal life, and angry denunciations of American politicians after US Embassy Cable releases, Julian Assange began writing the story of his life. This book describes not only the work of WikiLeaks, but the moral and political development of its founder, from his childhood in Australia to the present day.
Reflections on topics from war and crime to pop culture, in “a stunning collection . . . from the best essayist of his generation” (The New York Times). For more than two decades, Andrew O’Hagan has been publishing celebrated essays on both sides of the Atlantic. The Atlantic Ocean highlights the best of his clear-eyed, brilliant work, including his first published essay, a reminiscence of his working-class Scottish upbringing; an extraordinary piece about the lives of two soldiers, one English, one American, both of whom died in Iraq on May 2, 2005; and a piercing examination of the life of William Styron. O’Hagan’s subjects range from the rise of the tabloids to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, from the trajectory of the Beatles to the impossibility of not fancying Marilyn Monroe—in essays that are “stupendously unflinching, bursting with possibility” (Booklist, starred review). “A brilliant essayist, [O’Hagan] constructs sentences that pierce like pinpricks.” —Publishers Weekly, starred review
Patrick: The Irish Immigrant is the story of a determined Irish lad who dreamed of a better life of opportunities in America. By the age of seventeen, Patrick J. O'Shea had saved enough money to buy passage to the United States. Upon his arrival in New York City, Patrick used his ambition and determination, mixed with a dash of Irish malarkey, to set himself up with a job and a new life. This recipe served him well throughout his adventures that led him from New York City to the Territory of Hawaii and throughout the world. Along the way, Patrick married the love of his life, Arabell. Together they raised their family against the backdrop of World War II and other life-changing historical events. Patrick's life story is the universal story of many immigrants to the United States of America. He came, he prospered, and he proudly became a U.S. citizen. Patrick wanted his story told to encourage others to persevere despite obstacles and setbacks, to do one's best at any task, and to always conduct oneself with honor and dignity.
'Entertaining, shocking, uproarious, hilarious . . . like eavesdropping on a wake, as the mourners get gradually more drunk and tell ever more outrageous stories' Sunday Times This is the definitive history of London's most notorious drinking den, the Colony Room Club in Soho. It’s a hair-raising romp through the underbelly of the post-war scene: during its sixty-year history, more romances, more deaths, more horrors and more sex scandals took place in the Colony than anywhere else. Tales from the Colony Room is an oral biography, consisting of previously unpublished and long-lost interviews with the characters who were central to the scene, giving the reader a flavour of what it was like ...
The development of statistical theory in the past fifty years is faithfully reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kendall’s volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two volume work (Volume 1, 1943; Volume 2, 1946) and grew steadily, as a single authored work until the late fifties. At that point Alan Stuart became involved and the Advanced Theory was rewritten in three volumes. When Keith Ord joined in the early eighties, Volume 3 became the largest and plans were developed to expand it into a series of monographs called the Kendall's Library of Statistics which would devote a book to each of the modern developments in statistics. This serie...