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Capital Controls in Times of Crisis – Do They Work?
This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Countries often turn to using capital controls in crisis: some ease inflow controls while others tighten controls on outflows. A key finding is that countries with pervasive controls before the start of the crisis are shielded compared to countries with more open capital accounts, which see a significant decline in capital flows during crises. In contrast, the effectiveness of capital controls introduced during crises appears to be weak and difficult to identify. There is also some evidence that the introduction of outflow controls during crises is negatively associated with sovereign debt ratings, but that investors may actually forgive with time.
Do Capital Controls Limit Inflow Surges?
With rising financial integration, the magnitude and swings in capital flows have increased in the past two decades, intensifying the policy debate on how best to deal with these flows. This paper assesses the use and effectiveness of capital controls in limiting inflow surges. Using a novel dataset on capital control changes across 40 advanced and emerging market and developing economies over 1995-2018, we find that the tightening of capital controls reduces the probability of future surges both at the aggregate and the asset flow levels. The results are robust to various definitions of surges and are stronger when controls are matched to the asset class they target. Finally, we also find significant multilateral spillovers from capital control actions, pointing towards the need for international cooperation in the use of these policies.
Leakages from Macroprudential Regulations: The Case of Household-Specific Tools and Corporate Credit
Sector-specific macroprudential regulations increase the riskiness of credit to other sectors. Using firm-level data, this paper computed the measures of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation for 29 advanced and emerging economies. Consistently across these measures, the paper finds that during credit expansions, an unexpected tightening of household-specific macroprudential tools is followed by a rise in riskier corporate lending. Quantitatively, such unexpected tightening during a period of rapid credit growth increases the riskiness of corporate credit by around 10 percent of the historical standard deviation. This result supports early policy interventions when credit vulnerabilities are still low, since sectoral leakages will be less important at this stage. Further evidence from bank lending standards surveys suggests that the leakage effects are stronger for larger firms compared to SMEs, consistent with recent evidence on the use of personal real estate as loan collateral by small firms.
Some Alternative Monetary Facts
In this paper, we discuss the modern history of monetarism and its alternatives, as well as the changing empirical relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve correlations between money and inflation as established in the 20th century literature have largely disappeared, we explain why this cannot be taken as support for an increased reliance on permanent monetary finance. Rather, we argue that rapid technological innovation in payments systems—both public and private—including in global pledged collateral markets, portends a declining demand for central bank liabilities.
What Went Wrong with Capitalism
A century of expanding government has distorted financial markets, stoked massive inequality, and soaked America in debt. Capitalism didn’t fail, it was ruined... What went wrong with capitalism? Ruchir Sharma’s account is not like any you will have heard before. He says progressives are right, in part, when they mock modern capitalism as “socialism for the rich.” For a century, governments have expanded in just about every measurable dimension, from spending to regulation and the scale of financial rescues when the economy wobbles. The result is expensive state guarantees for everyone—bailouts for the rich, entitlements for the middle class, welfare for the poor. Taking you back t...
Review of the Fund's Policy on Multiple Currency Practices–Proposals for Reform
In February 2019, the Executive Board considered staff’s preliminary proposals for reforming the IMF’s policy on multiple currency practices (MCPs) and supported the majority of the proposals. The Board expressed strong support for re-focusing the policy on official action that segments foreign exchange markets, eliminating the concept of potentiality, and replacing the current fixed two-percent rule for identifying MCPs for spot transactions with a country-specific market-based norm and tolerance margin that would apply uniformly across the membership for both spot and non-spot transactions. The Board also supported staff’s proposals regarding the other elements of the new methodology to identify MCPs, the treatment of illegal parallel markets, excluding broken cross-rates from the scope of the policy, and the linkages with the Institutional View on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows. The paper outlines operational considerations to address noncompliance and to ensure a smooth transition. It is proposed to enhance the current cooperative approach to addressing noncompliance by increasing transparency and accountability.
Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing
There is growing recognition that prolonged monetary policy easing of major economies can have extraterritorial spillovers, driving up financial system leverage in other countries. When faced with such a rise of threats to financial stability, what can countries do? Specifically, is there a role for macroprudential tools, capital controls or foreign exchange intervention in safeguarding financial stability from risks arising externally? We examine the efficacy of these policy interventions by exploring whether preemptive or reactive policy interventions can mitigate such risks. Using a sample of 950 bank and nonbank financial firms across 28 non-U.S. economies over the past two decades, we show that if policymakers are able to implement policies prior to an additional consecutive decline in U.S. interest rates, financial institutions do not increase their leverage by as much as they otherwise would. By contrast, it is more difficult to counter the spillovers with reactive policy interventions. In practice, however, policymakers need to remain cautious about the timing of preventative tightening, especially when their economies face large negative shocks such as a pandemic.
Shabdon ki zindagi
poetry book
Cybersecurity and Privacy in Cyber Physical Systems
Cybersecurity and Privacy in Cyber-Physical Systems collects and reports on recent high-quality research that addresses different problems related to cybersecurity and privacy in cyber-physical systems (CPSs). It Presents high-quality contributions addressing related theoretical and practical aspects Improves the reader’s awareness of cybersecurity and privacy in CPSs Analyzes and presents the state of the art of CPSs, cybersecurity, and related technologies and methodologies Highlights and discusses recent developments and emerging trends in cybersecurity and privacy in CPSs Proposes new models, practical solutions, and technological advances related to cybersecurity and privacy in CPSs D...
