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The evolving livestock sector in Ethiopia: Growth by heads, not by productivity
Livestock is important in Ethiopia’s agricultural economy as almost all farmers own some livestock. Livestock assets are valued at 720 USD per farm on average. Overall livestock output has grown rapidly over the last decade, estimated at almost 6 percent per year, but about 80 percent of that growth came from increases in the number of livestock. The stock of different livestock species was about 50 percent higher in 2015 than a decade earlier, while modern input use and improvements in production methods contributed little to growth in the livestock sector. Linked to improved access to extension and markets, adoption of improved breeds and improved feeding practices increased, but such ad...
The rising costs of nutritious foods: The case of Ethiopia
Costs of healthy diets are worryingly rising in a number of developed and emerging economies. However, less is known on these costs for developing countries. Using price data from a large number of markets in Ethiopia, we find that real prices of all nutritionally-rich food groups increased significantly (between 19 and 62 percent) over the period 2007 to 2016. This contrasts with (1) staple crops (grains, roots, and tubers), which did not show any price increase, and (2) oils, fats, and sugar, the prices of which decreased substantially. Using detailed nationwide datasets and relying on time series methods, we link these price increases to changes in local markets, demand and supply factors...
The rising costs of animal-source foods in Ethiopia: Evidence and implications
In many developing countries in which staple foods dominate the composition of diets, higher consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) is associated with significant nutritional benefits. Given the importance of prices for consumption decisions in these settings, we analyze ASF price patterns in the last decade (2007-2016), relying on a large-scale price dataset collected in 116 urban retail markets in Ethiopia. We document important seasonal and spatial patterns and we find, worryingly, that real prices of ASF have been increasing in the last decade by between 32 to 36 percent for three major ASF – milk, eggs, and meat. Similar price increases are noted in rural and urban areas and for tradable and non-tradable ASFs. This price trend is in contrast with staple cereals for which real prices stayed at similar levels over the last decade. As we estimate that a price increase of this magnitude would reduce consumption of ASF by approximately 25 percent, holding other things constant, it seems that more investments and attention to the production of ASF and the livestock sector are needed to reduce ASF prices and increase their consumption in Ethiopia.
Rural income diversification in Ethiopia: Patterns, trends, and welfare impacts
Increased diversification of rural households into the rural non-farm economy is an important driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries like Ethiopia where the vast majority of people live in rural areas and are largely dependent on seasonal agriculture. Some of the benefits of diversification include efficient utilization of asset endowments (e.g., labor during dry season) and reduction of risks. In this study we explore the: (i) patterns and trends of diversification, (ii) drivers of diversification including the association between rainfall risk/shocks and diversification, and (iii) welfare effects of diversification during the recent decade using three rounds o...
Quantifying food losses in the beans value chain in Rwanda: Analysis and results from a baseline survey
At the global level, awareness about the significance of food loss and waste has grown significantly over the past decade. The international community has taken the matter to hand as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has committed to “halve the per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer level and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses” by 2030.
Evolving food systems in Ethiopia: Past, present and future
Ethiopia’s food systems are rapidly evolving, being driven by major contextual changes including high population growth, rapid urbanization, infrastructure investments, and income growth. These changes are illustrated by dietary, agricultural, and supply chain transformations. These transformations in Ethiopia’s food systems are expected to continue at a rapid pace given similar even more pronounced changes going forward. We expect to see especially rapid growth in commercial food markets. This will have enormous implications on farming and on the required development of efficient private-led agricultural input supply, logistics, trading, and distribution sectors.
Scoping study on Ethiopian sesame value chain
The Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) is the largest non-profit public agricultural research group globally. Recently, it has restructured itself into One-CGIAR with the intention of integrating its capabilities, knowledge, assets, people, and global presence for a new era of intercon nected and partnership-driven research towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). One-CGIAR led the development of about 30 initiatives that aimed at addressing one more of the key impact areas of SDGs. One of these initiatives is “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclu sion and Sustainability,” referred to as rethinking markets in short. Rethink...
Agricultural prices during drought in Ethiopia
Expanding and extending an earlier assessment (ESSP Working Paper 88, April 2016), we analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and June 2016 to evaluate the effect of El Niño triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real prices of major cereals were lower in the middle of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by the drought. The...
Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.
IFPRI publications related to nutrition in Ethiopia
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) began research activities in Ethiopia in the 1980s to assess the root causes of drought-related food-production shortages and support adoption of appropriate policy responses. IFPRI’s rigorous empirical research contributed to a broader understanding of economic development processes in Ethiopia and built capacity to conduct such research on a national scale. Working with many long-standing partners, IFPRI evaluated strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural growth, investment in agricultural research, the provision of safety nets to strengthen resilience, prioritization of nutrition interventions for women and children, property rights, and management of natural resources, among other goals. Evidence from this and other work informed programs and initiatives to improve food and nutrition security for vulnerable people.
