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In Search of the Origin of Original Sin Dissipation
In this paper, we examine how, contrary to the ‘original sin’ hypothesis, emerging market economies have gained the ability to borrow abroad in their local currency. We empirically analyze the relationship of various economic variables with local currency debt and identify three crucial conditions for the capacity to borrow in local currency: institutional quality, sufficient depth in the domestic bond market, and adequate performance in inflation targeting. While shares in JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index also appear to be influential, the associations with local currency debt is less clear. We conduct a similar empirical analysis on portfolio equity, which...
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
The Dynamics of Human Aggression
This book seeks to resolve an issue that has divided psychoanalysts and other scholars of aggression for decades, namely the nature of aggression. The work expands and unifies the Freudian drive-based explanation of aggression into contemporary psychoanalytic theory and practice and brings Freudian theory into the 21st Century.
External Sector Report 2024
This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards, while other reserve currency movements have been mixed. Net capital inflows to emerging market and developing economies recovered slightly from the lows experienced in 2022 but remained negative in 2023. Gross inflows and outflows in emerging markets declined, however. Against this background, the global current account balance (defined as the cross-country sum of absolute values of current account) ...
China's Party Congress
The first analysis of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, more commonly known as the Party Congress. Drawing from new documentary evidence, Guoguang Wu examines the operation of the highest decision-making body in China's single ruling party, developing a theory of authoritarian legitimization that integrates informal politics with institutions.
Fu Shan’s World
"For 1,300 years, Chinese calligraphy was based on the elegant art of Wang Xizhi (A.D. 303–361). But the seventeenth-century emergence of a style modeled on the rough, broken epigraphs of ancient bronzes and stone artifacts brought a revolution in calligraphic taste. By the eighteenth century, this led to the formation of the stele school of calligraphy, which continues to shape Chinese calligraphy today. A dominant force in this school was the eminent calligrapher and art theorist Fu Shan (1607–1685). Because his work spans the late Ming–early Qing divide, it is an ideal prism through which to view the transformation in calligraphy. Rather than seek a single explanation for the change...
