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Republic of Latvia
The IMF has approved an exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The program is part of a coordinated international effort that has improved financial and economic stability. By early 2008, the fast growth has leveled off but severe vulnerabilities turned the slowdown into a crisis. Immediate steps to stabilize the financial sector and help stem reserve losses has focused on resolving the systemic Parex Bank, which is experiencing a deposit run. Measures to ensure long-term external viability has focused on fiscal and income policies.
Post-Conflict Recovery
This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.
Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries
The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.
Kyrgyz Republic
Performance of the banking sector during the crisis and challenges are discussed. The impact of the political crisis on the banking sector is outlined. The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most open economies in the world. Gross international reserves (GIR) in the Kyrgyz Republic have increased more than sixfold in the last decade. Gold exports, remittances, and official development assistance have become important sources of reserve accumulation. The current level of reserves in the Kyrgyz Republic comfortably meets most reserve adequacy indicators, but fails on one metric used for low-income countries (LICs).
Indonesia
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that sound macroeconomic management and exchange rate flexibility have bolstered policy credibility and external resiliency in Indonesia over the past 18 months. In the face of Federal Reserve tapering and headwinds posed by slumping commodity prices, policy and reserve buffers have been strengthened through a clearer policy framework and better policy coordination. Notwithstanding commodity sector developments and global risk factors, the near-term outlook is broadly positive. Looking ahead, the main challenge for Indonesia is to chart a course to higher, more inclusive growth, while preserving macrofinancial stability and further strengthening the external position.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund's Legal and Policy Framework
his paper reviews the recent application of the Fund’s policies and practices on sovereign debt restructuring. Specifically, the paper: • recaps in a holistic manner the various policies and practices that underpin the Fund's legal and policy framework for sovereign debt restructuring, including on debt sustainability, market access, financing assurances, arrears, private sector involvement (PSI), official sector involvement (OSI), and the use of legal instruments; • reviews how this framework has been applied in the context of Fund-supported programs and highlights the issues that have emerged in light of recent experience with debt restructuring; and • describes recent initiatives ...
Why Did Public Banks Lend More During the Global Financial Crisis?
During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), state-owned or public banks lent relatively more than domestic private banks in many countries. However, data limitations have hindered a thorough assessment of what led public banks to better maintain lending during the GFC. Using a novel bank-level dataset covering 25 emerging market economies, we show that public banks lent relatively more during the GFC because they pursued an objective of helping to stabilize the economy, rather than because they had superior fundamentals or access to public or depositors’ funding. Nonetheless, their countercyclical behavior seems unique to the GFC rather than a regular characteristic of public banks before and after the GFC.
Ukraine
This paper discusses Ukraine’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement. The authorities have made a strong start in implementing the program. All performance criteria (PCs) for end-March 2015 and, based on preliminary information, all PCs for end-June were met. Eight benchmarks were completed, albeit four of them with a delay and two were converted into prior actions for this review. Discussions with creditors have made progress toward a debt operation that would restore fiscal sustainability. In view of the authorities’ performance under the program, their policy commitments for the period ahead, and progress toward a debt operation in line with its stated objectives, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review.
Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit Through Outright Transfers
This paper argues that in reserve currency issuing economies at the effective lower bound, outright transfers from the central bank to households are both more equitable and more effective in achieving monetary policy objectives than asset purchases or negative interest rates. It shows that concerns pertaining to central banks’ policy solvency and equity position can be addressed through a careful assessment of a central bank's loss absorbing capacity and, if need be, tiered reserve remuneration policies. It also spells out key differences to a debt or money financed fiscal stimulus, which are particularly pronounced in a currency union without a central fiscal capacity. The paper concludes by discussing broader institutional, political, and legal considerations.
Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The degree of an economy’s monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP-- in low- to middle-income countries is significantly correlated with per-capita GDP, real interest rates, and financial sector reform. It suggests that maintaining an upward momentum in monetization can be an important policy objective, particularly for low-income countries, and that monetary and financial sector policies need to be conducive to enhancing monetization.
