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Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach
In this paper, we study systemic non-financial corporate sector distress using firm-level probabilities of default (PD), covering 55 economies, and spanning the last three decades. Systemic corporate distress is identified by elevated PDs across a large portion of the firms in an economy. A machine-learning based early warning system is constructed to predict the onset of distress in one year’s time. Our results show that credit expansion, monetary policy tightening, overvalued stock prices, and debt-linked balance-sheet weaknesses predict corporate distress. We also find that systemic corporate distress events are associated with contractions in GDP and credit growth in advanced and emerging markets at different degrees and milder than financial crises.
Private and Public Debt
Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times. While previous research has shown that private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs), we document that this effect is very pronounced in EMEs as well. Moreover, although rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises, in EMEs they are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs. Part of this difference is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.
Unchaining Nations, Freeing People
Unchaining Nations, Freeing People: The development challenges of the contemporary world is composed of seven chapters with a common theme: the analysis of vicious cycles that hampers the fully development of nations. Each one of the articles approaches a topic of the current international political agenda, including: civil conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa and the case of the Central African Republic; religious sectarianism and violence in Syria; the corruption-drug trafficking nexus; press freedom; middle-income countries’ challenges on development; the relation between gender and health access; and the legal and social issues between state secularism and religious freedom.
Indonesia
Indonesia: Selected Issues
Microeconomics in Context
Microeconomics in Context lays out the principles of microeconomics in a manner that is thorough, up to date, and relevant to students. Like its counterpart, Macroeconomics in Context, the book is uniquely attuned to economic, social, and environmental realities. The "In Context" books offer an engaging coverage of current research and policy issues from economic inequality and climate change, to taxes and globalization. Key features include: Up-to-date discussions of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequality, labor markets, and beyond Analysis of recent trade issues and the implications of Brexit Presentation of policy issues in historical, environmental, institutional, social, pol...
European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring
This volume gathers the latest advances, innovations, and applications in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM) and more broadly in the fields of smart materials and intelligent systems, as presented by leading international researchers and engineers at the 10th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring (EWSHM), held in Palermo, Italy on July 4-7, 2022. The volume covers highly diverse topics, including signal processing, smart sensors, autonomous systems, remote sensing and support, UAV platforms for SHM, Internet of Things, Industry 4.0, and SHM for civil structures and infrastructures. The contributions, which are published after a rigorous international peer-review process, highlight numerous exciting ideas that will spur novel research directions and foster multidisciplinary collaboration among different specialists.
Freedom is a monetary matter
"Freedom is a monetary matter" explores the social and economic consequences of monetary inflation in the current financial system and provides a comparison in various areas to a system based on sound money (money without inflation). The book has a strong foundation in world history and its major cycles. Rising prices, growing lines at the food bank, major corporations generating billions of dollars in revenues, an increasing threat of war; This book is written for people that want to figure out how to connect the dots in an accelerating chain of seemingly senseless and unconnected world events. Equipped with the overall framework as described in this book, these events will become very understandable and even predictable. It will also become very clear in what way inflation has determined the course of history and how history tells us, that we can expect increasing instability of the current monetary system. In this book you will read how bitcoin — a digitally sound money that dissipates inflation — fits into this picture. It also becomes clear what we can do for our personal financial security in the times ahead.
Optoelectronics
Optoelectronics Materials and Devices follows the Optoelectronics Books II and III published in 2011 and 2013, as part of the InTech collection of international works on optoelectronics. Accordingly, as with the first two books of the collection, this book covers recent achievements by specialists around the world. The growing number of countries participating in this endeavor as well as joint participation of the US and Moldova scientists in this edition testifies to the unifying effect of science. An interested reader will find in the book the description of properties and applications employing organic and inorganic materials, as well as the methods of fabrication and analysis of operation and regions of application of modern optoelectronic devices.
Indonesia
Indonesia’s growth remains strong despite external headwinds. Inflation is firmly in the target range and the financial sector is resilient. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious growth agenda to reach high-income status by 2045. This comprises public spending, institutional reforms, and Industrial Policy (IP). Risks are broadly balanced. Key downside risks include persistent commodity price volatility (e.g., from geopolitical shocks), an abrupt slowdown in Indonesia’s key trading partners, or adverse spillovers from tighter-for-longer global financial conditions. On the domestic side, a weakening of long-standing sound macro-fiscal frameworks could hamper policy credibility. On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated growth in trading partners or faster disinflation in AEs could prop up growth while deep structural reforms would raise growth over the medium term.
Carbon Policy and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets
Understanding the impact of climate mitigation policies is key to designing effective carbon pricing tools. We use institutional features of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and high-frequency data on more than 2,000 publicly listed European firms over 2011-21 to study the impact of carbon policies on stock returns. After extracting the surprise component of regulatory actions, we show that events resulting in higher carbon prices lead to negative abnormal returns which increase with a firm's carbon intensity. This negative relationship is even stronger for firms in sectors which do not participate in the EU ETS suggesting that investors price in transition risk stemming from the shift towards a low-carbon economy. We conclude that policies which increase carbon prices are effective in raising the cost of capital for emission-intensive firms.
