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Bank Lending in Turkey
The period following the 2000-01 crisis was marked by a successful disinflation program sustained through inflation targeting and fiscal discipline in Turkey. This paper studies the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on credit growth during this period. Using quarterly bank-level data covering 2002-08, we find evidence that liquidity-constrained banks have sharper decline in lending during contractionary monetary policies and that crowding-out effect disappears more for banks with a retail-banking focus when fiscal policies are prudent.The results are statistically weak, suggesting that bank lending channel is not strong in Turkey and government finances has limited direct impact on credit.
Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa
This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in tax bases. Change in the credit to private sector also has some affect on the revenue performance; however, asset and commodity prices are not significant in explaining the deviation of revenue from its trend. Nonetheless, quantitative effects of these prices are subject to assumptions used for long-run price levels.
CLIMATE CHANGES AND NATURAL RESOURCES
This book analyzes how the management of natural resources can affect climate change and how climate change affects energy, food, fisheries, producing industries and national adaptation strategies in Turkey’s perspective. The schematic diagrams, tables and graphs have been included to make the book more illustrative. Resource management is analysed from the perspective of a capital conversion-based model of development. One important conclusion of the book is that integrating climate change concerns into resource management implies that some natural resources will need to be stranded in order to meet mitigation commitments compatible with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts to limit the increase in the average value of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting
This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuations in South Africa in a cross-country context, and studies the impact of the output gap by controlling for export intensity, the debt burden, asset prices, and banking crises. Results show that South Africa’s revenue performance was outstanding during the mid-2000s, and the recent decline in revenue was one of the least among the emerging and advanced markets. Results on the elasticity of tax revenue show that South Africa’s elasticity is higher during business upturns, indicating good prospects for recovering the revenue lost during the global financial crisis.
Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework
Emerging markets (EMs) are experiencing a surge in capital inflows, lifting asset prices and growth prospects. While inflows are typically beneficial for receiving countries, inflow surges can carry macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This paper reviews the recent experience of EMs in dealing with capital inflows and suggests a possible framework for IMF policy advice on the spectrum of measures available to policymakers to manage inflows, including macroeconomic policies, prudential measures and capital controls. Illustrative applications of this framework suggest that it may be appropriate for several countries, based on their current circumstances, to consider prudential measures...
Cape Verde
Cape Verde has demonstrated notable economic and policy resilience. The public investment program should be completed, but new external borrowing should be limited to restore fiscal buffers. The monetary policy framework could be improved in the medium term. The Bank of Cape Verde should step up efforts to safeguard the financial system and to develop the government securities market. Improving economic and financial statistics to facilitate better monitoring and analysis of developments to guide policy formulation is needed in Cape Verde.
Liberalizing Capital Flows and Managing Outflows - Background Paper
Liberalization of capital flows can benefit both source and recipient countries by improving resource allocation, reducing financing costs, increasing competition and accelerating the development of domestic financial systems. The empirical evidence, however, is mixed on the benefits, and it suggests that countries benefit most when they meet certain thresholds related to institutional and financial development. The principal cost of capital flow liberalization stems from the economic instability brought on by volatile capital flows. In extreme cases, sudden stops or reversals in capital inflows can trigger financial crises followed by prolonged periods of weak growth.
Kingdom of Lesotho
This staff report examines the Kingdom of Lesotho’s 2012 Article IV Consultation and second and third reviews under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. Real GDP growth for 2010/11 is estimated at 53⁄4 percent, and inflation rose gradually in 2011, driven by international commodity prices. Despite the sharp drop in Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues, fiscal performance in 2010/11 has been much better than programmed, reflecting higher domestic revenue collections and cuts in recurrent spending.
Positive Psychological Approaches to Disaster
Written by prominent proponents of disaster mental health and/or positive psychology, this comprehensive book examines disaster mental health and positive psychology in the context of natural and technological disasters. Chapters in the first section focus on applications of meaning and resilience in the area of disaster mental health, both serving as primary examples of applications of positive psychology and related frameworks. Later chapters focus more specifically on key aspects of disaster mental health, including the importance of preparedness, training, and special populations. Contributors consistently align their insights with positive psychological approaches, either by explicitly ...
