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Development and Stabilization in Small Open Economies
This book analyses and explains the nature of the economies of small countries and territories. It includes an assessment of material prosperity in 41 small open economies worldwide, with case studies focusing on the Caribbean and Central America, with a review of the development of their economies in recent decades. The volume recommends a suite of economic policy tools for the management of these economies, demonstrating how these may best be employed in economies that live and breathe through international commerce. Among observations of interest is the fact that the devaluation of the local currency of a small nation makes the country worse off; even a currency that maintains its value i...
Technology and Oligopoly Capitalism
Technology and Oligopoly Capitalism is a major contribution to our understanding of how technology oligopolies are shaping America’s social, economic, and political reality. Technology oligopolies are the most powerful socioeconomic entities in America. From cradle to grave, the decisions they make affect the most intimate aspects of our lives, how we work, what we eat, our health, how we communicate, what we know and believe, whom we elect, and how we relate to one another and to nature. Their power over markets, trade, regulation, and most every aspect of our governance is more intrusive and farther-reaching than ever. They benefit from tax breaks, government guarantees, and bailouts tha...
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Selected Issues
Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia
St. Lucia has enviably high female labor force participation rate and strikingly low participation gap vis-à-vis male. The latter is lower than OECD average and way below world average. Women are also more educated than men. Yet, using a micro dataset of St. Lucia Labor Force Survey over the period 2016-2021, our analysis points towards disproportionate effects of childcare on female participation and unemployment and a substantial gender gap in labor income for workers without higher education. Moreover, the income gap is not explained by observable worker characteristics. While the paper does not explore causal links, this unique feature of high female participation and, yet, considerable...
Confronting South Korea's Next Crisis
South Korea's economic miracle is a well-known story. However, today Korea is confronting a new set of internal and external risks, which may foreshadow the next crisis. The Korean economy has been struggling with the faltering growth momentum and the rise of unprecedented socio-economic problems over recent years well before the pandemic crisis. After abrupt downshifts to markedly slower growth in the early 2000s, economic growth has continued to decelerate. Koreans are grappling with slow income growth, all time-high household debt, high youth unemployment, inequality, and social polarization. Politics is in disarray and is incapable of directing social discourse for the common good. Rapid...
Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs
We investigate theoretically and empirically how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs are both ad valorem and per unit, our model predicts that markups rise with distance and fall with tariffs, but these effects are heterogeneous and are smaller in magnitude for higher quality exports. We find strong support for the predictions of the model using a unique data set of Argentinean firm-level wine exports combined with experts wine ratings as a measure of quality.
Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think
The paper builds a unique industry-level dataset by combining Mexico’s nationally sourced inputoutput data (INEGI) with cross-country sources (WIOD, UN Comtrade). Using this dataset to exploit higher supply linkages across a larger number of industries than what is available in cross-country sources, the paper estimates the trade diversion effect on Mexico’s exports to the U.S. from two episodes, with a focus on the first: the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018 and the U.S. sanctions on Russia in 2014. Difference-in-differences, local projections and few other empirical methodologies are used. For the first episode, the paper finds higher trade diversion effects than estimates in literatur...
Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?
The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value chains reduces the exchange rate elasticity of gross trade volumes. This result holds both in the short and medium term, pointing to the rigidity of value chains. At the same time, greater value chain integration is associated with larger gross trade flows, relative to GDP, which tends to amplify the effect of exchange rate movements. Overall, combining these two results suggests that, for most countries, integration into global value chains does not materially alter the working of exchange rates and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility in facilitating external adjustment remain.
Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2024
After successfully weathering a series of shocks, most countries in the region are converging to their (tepid) potential. Growth is expected to moderate in late 2024 and 2025 while inflation is projected to continue easing, although gradually. With output and inflation gaps mostly closed but monetary policy still contractionary and public finances in need of strengthening, a further rebalancing of the policy mix is necessary. Fiscal consolidation should advance without delay to rebuild buffers while protecting priority public investment and social spending. This would support the normalization of monetary policy and strengthen credibility and resilience of policy frameworks. Most central ban...
Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR
This paper provides the basis for the quinquennial review by the Executive Board of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The review covers the composition and weighting of the SDR currency basket, and the financial instruments used to determine the SDR interest rate. In the five-year period for this review (2017‒21), developments in key variables relevant for the SDR valuation suggest that there have been no major changes in the roles of currencies in the world economy. The countries and the currency union (euro area) whose currencies are currently included in the SDR basket remain the five largest exporters and their currencies continue to account for the majority o...
