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Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices
We use structural scenario analysis to show that the climate policy mix—supply-side versus demand-side policies—can lead to different oil price paths with diverging distributional consequences in a netzero emissions scenario. When emission reduction is driven by demand-side policies, prices would decline to around 25 USD per barrel in 2030, benefiting consuming countries. Vice versa, supply-side climate policies aimed at curbing oil production would push up prices to above 130 USD per barrel, benefiting those producing countries that take the political decision to keep on producing. Consequently, it is wrong to assume that oil prices will necessarily decline due to the clean energy transition. As policies are mostly formulated at the country level and hard to predict at the global level, the transition will raise uncertainty about the price outlook.
Resilience and Sustainability Facility—Operational Guidance Note
This note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for arrangement requests and reviews. The RSF complements the existing IMF lending toolkit by providing longer-term, affordable financing to members to help them address longer-term structural challenges from climate change and pandemic preparedness. The note has benefited from experience gained during early operationalization of the RSF.
Subnational Debt Management and Restructuring
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, policymakers around the world are focusing once again on government debt sustainability. In China, subnational government debt is an important part of total government debt, and therefore deserves the attention that policymakers have paid to the topic. Subnational debt has played an important role in financing China’s impressive infrastructure that is the envy of the world. It was instrumental in the economic stimulus that China so effectively staged after the global financial crisis, through which China maintained high levels of economic activity. This e-book reports on the proceedings of a joint P.R. China Ministry of Finance-World Bank in...
This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation
As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency ...
A Research Agenda for Economic Crime and Development
This contemporary Research Agenda examines the threats to stability and sustainability presented by economically motivated crime and misconduct. Featuring contributions from distinguished experts in the field of criminal law and justice, this book proposes avenues for future research into the legal frameworks designed to prevent and manage economic crime and corruption.
Green Bond Pricing and Greenwashing Under Asymmetric Information
We analyze the corporate green bond market under a rational framework without an innate green preference, using a simple adverse selection model. Firms can use green bonds to signal their green credentials to investors. Transition risk stems from uncertainty over the introduction of carbon pricing. We show that green bonds have a price premium over conventional bonds when there are information asymmetry, transition risk, and it is costly to engage in greenwashing, that is, false or exaggerated claims of being green. The extent of greenwashing in the market is a function of the green bond premium. A swift and gradual implementation of carbon pricing generates a small green bond premium and a low level of greenwashing, while delayed and large carbon pricing has an ambiguous effect on both. The model provides a rich set of policy implications, notably the need for swift action on carbon pricing and strong information disclosures and regulations to ensure the integrity of green bonds.
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fisca...
Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a pronounced setback in the fight against global poverty—likely the largest setback since World War II. Many low- and middle-income countries have yet to see a full recovery. High indebtedness in many countries has hindered a swift recovery, while rising food and energy prices—fueled in part by conflict and climate shocks—have made a return to progress on poverty reduction more challenging than ever. These setbacks have altered the trajectory of poverty reduction in large and lasting ways. The world is significantly off course on the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030.The year 2020 also marked a historic turning point as decades of global income conv...
External Sector Report 2024
This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards, while other reserve currency movements have been mixed. Net capital inflows to emerging market and developing economies recovered slightly from the lows experienced in 2022 but remained negative in 2023. Gross inflows and outflows in emerging markets declined, however. Against this background, the global current account balance (defined as the cross-country sum of absolute values of current account) ...
The Euro Experiment
A clear, analytical and balanced guide to the euro experiment and subsequent crisis that will appeal to a wide readership.
