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Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
"Russia's recent aggression against Ukraine has disrupted nearly a generation of relative peace and stability between Moscow and its Western neighbors and raised concerns about its larger intentions. From the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the threat to the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania -- former Soviet republics, now member states that border Russian territory -- may be the most problematic of these. In a series of war games conducted between summer 2014 and spring 2015, RAND Arroyo Center examined the shape and probable outcome of a near-term Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The games' findings are unambiguous: As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Fortunately, it will not require Herculean effort to avoid such a failure. Further gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades -- adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities -- could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states"--Publisher's web site.
A New Division of Labor
"A new U.S. grand strategy has been emerging, one that requires not only resources but patience and commitment: the promotion of democracy and freedom abroad. The U.S. armed forces will continue to be among the myriad contributors necessary to achieve this goal. In the face of increasing complexity, changing tactics, and tight budgets, the defense establishment will need to change in multiple ways, yet must also not risk its historic strengths. This volume draws together and integrates insights derived from a wide range of research efforts undertaken at RAND over the past few years. Some of the observations include different ways to organize and employ forces and to divide labor among them, updated insights about the natures of likely future conflicts, the need to further improve information resources, and the value of fostering partnerships among the services and with allies. the authors also offer specific recommendations, such as a recommendation to the Air Force to reevaluate its concepts for large-scale power projection." -- p. [4] of cover.
The U.S.-China Military Scorecard
A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.
A Question of Balance
Evaluates key aspects of the China-Taiwan military balance, including: how are the political dynamics of the cross-strait relationship changing, and how could those changes affect perceptions of the military balance? How effective might China's growing force of short-range ballistic missiles be in attacking key military targets on Taiwan, such as air bases? How have changes in Chinese military capabilities changed the likely outcome of a possible contest for air superiority over the strait and Taiwan itself? How can Taiwan be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt?
America's Challenge
The emergence of the People's Republic of China on the world scene constitutes the most significant event in world politics since the end of World War II. As the world's predominant political, economic, and military power, the United States faces a particularly significant challenge in responding to China's rising power and influence, especially in Asia. Offering a fresh perspective on current and future U.S. policy toward China, Michael Swaine examines the basic interests and beliefs behind U.S.-China relations, recent U.S. and Chinese policy practices in seven key areas, and future trends most likely to affect U.S. policy. American leaders, he concludes, must reexamine certain basic assumptions and approaches regarding America's position in the Western Pacific, integrate China policy more effectively into a broader Asian strategy, and recalibrate the U.S. balance between cooperative engagement and deterrence toward Beijing.
The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries
Deterrence of nuclear use through the threat of retaliation could be highly problematic in many plausible conflict scenarios with nuclear-armed regional adversaries. This could compel U.S. leaders to temper their military and political objectives if they come into conflict with these states. This book examines the reasons behind this important shift in the international security environment and its strategic and force planning implications.
Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin
To many in the United States, China looms large and threatening. This monograph attempts to answer, through an analysis of China s defense establishment under the leadership of Jiang Zemin, questions such as: What are the national security and national military goals of China s leaders? What strategies are Chinese leaders considering in pursuit of these goals? What is the likelihood that these goals will be attained? It assesses the political and economic determinants of China s effort to modernize its armed forces. Four possible strategies are outlined: (1) playing the superpower game," (2) playing to its strengths," (3) changing the rules of the game," or (4) don t play that game." The factors that will determine the selection of a strategy are examined. The most likely strategy is identified and its outcome of evaluated. Lastly, the implications of the study for the U.S. defense community are addressed.
Russia and Arms Control
Russo-American relations are generally acknowledged to be at an impasse. Arms control issues feature prominently in that conflicted agenda. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, both [Russia and the U.S.] have further hardened positions and raised tensions apart from the war itself and Russia's quite evident refusal to abide by its own cease-fire terms. Nevertheless, and for better or worse, arms control and its agenda will remain at the heart of the bilateral Russo-American relationship for a long time. Arms control and disarmament issues are quintessentially political as well as military issues that are among the most critical components of the bilateral relationship and regional security in both Europe and Asia. For these reasons, neither the political nor the military aspect can be divorced from the other. And for these same reasons, we cannot refuse to participate in the bilateral effort to resolve those issues.
Weapons Proliferation and War in the Greater Middle East
This important new book explores the strategic reasons behind the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as ballistic missile delivery systems in the Greater Middle East. It examines the uses and limitations of chemical weapons in regional combat, ballistic missile warfare and defenses, as well as Iran's drive for nuclear weapons and the likely regional reactions should Tehran acquire a nuclear weapons inventory. This book also discusses Chinese assistance to WMD and ballistic programs in the Greater Middle East. Finally, this book recommends policy options for American diplomacy to counter the challenges posed by WMD proliferation. This essential study prepares the ground for the challenges facing the international community. Richard Russell is a professor at the National Defense University's Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, DC. He also teaches at the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. He previously served as a political-military analyst at the CIA.
