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The classical statistical problem typically involves a probability distribution which depends on a number of unknown parameters. The form of the distribution may be known, partially or completely, and inferences have to be made on the basis of a sample of observations drawn from the distribution; often, but not necessarily, a random sample. This brief deals with problems where some of the sample members are either unobserved or hypothetical, the latter category being introduced as a means of better explaining the data. Sometimes we are interested in these kinds of variable themselves and sometimes in the parameters of the distribution. Many problems that can be cast into this form are treated. These include: missing data, mixtures, latent variables, time series and social measurement problems. Although all can be accommodated within a Bayesian framework, most are best treated from first principles.
The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?
This is a book about the ideas that drive statistics. It is an ideal primer for students who need an introduction to the concepts of statistics without the added confusion of technical jargon and mathematical language. It introduces the intuitive thinking behind standard procedures, explores the process of informal reasoning, and uses conceptual frameworks to provide a foundation for students new to statistics. It showcases the expertise we have all developed from living in a data saturated society, increases our statistical literacy and gives us the tools needed to approach statistical mathematics with confidence. Key topics include: Variability Standard Distributions Correlation Relationship Sampling Inference An engaging, informal introduction this book sets out the conceptual tools required by anyone undertaking statistical procedures for the first time or for anyone needing a fresh perspective whilst studying the work of others.
Scientific accounts of existence give chance a central role. At the smallest level, quantum theory involves uncertainty and evolution is driven by chance and necessity. These ideas do not fit easily with theology in which chance has been seen as the enemy of purpose. One option is to argue, as proponents of Intelligent Design do, that chance is not real and can be replaced by the work of a Designer. Others adhere to a deterministic theology in which God is in total control. Neither of these views, it is argued, does justice to the complexity of nature or the greatness of God. The thesis of this book is that chance is neither unreal nor non-existent but an integral part of God's creation. This view is expounded, illustrated and defended by drawing on the resources of probability theory and numerous examples from the natural and social worlds.
Drawing on the authors' varied experiences working and teaching in the field, Analysis of Multivariate Social Science Data, Second Editionenables a basic understanding of how to use key multivariate methods in the social sciences. With updates in every chapter, this edition expands its topics to include regression analysis, con
Hitherto latent variable modelling has hovered on the fringes of the statistical mainstream but if the purpose of statistics is to deal with real problems, there is every reason for it to move closer to centre stage. In the social sciences especially, latent variables are common and if they are to be handled in a truly scientific manner, statistical theory must be developed to include them. This book aims to show how that should be done. This second edition is a complete re-working of the book of the same name which appeared in the Griffin’s Statistical Monographs in 1987. Since then there has been a surge of interest in latent variable methods which has necessitated a radical revision of ...
Black Bartholomew's Day explores the religious, political and cultural implications of a collision of highly-charged polemic prompted by the mass ejection of Puritan ministers from the Church of England in 1662. It is the first in-depth study of this heated exchange, centres centring on the departing ministers' farewell sermons. Many of these valedictions, delivered by hundreds of dissenting preachers in the weeks before Bartholomew's Day, would be illegally printed and widely distributed, provoking a furious response from government officials, magistrates and bishops. Black Bartholomew's Day re-interprets the political significance of ostensibly moderate Puritan clergy, arguing that their preaching posed a credible threat to the restored political order This book is aimed at readers interested in historicism, religion, nonconformity, print culture and the political potential of preaching in Restoration England.
Measurement is the cornerstone of science. Insofar as social science aims to be scientific it, too, must take measurement seriously. Yet measurement has not yet established for itself a central role in the teaching of social science. With the literature on social measurement scattered across disciplinary boundaries, this collection provides a unique resource for researchers and libraries. It brings together over 60 key articles from the fields of sociology, economics, psychology, psychometrics, political science and management science, as well as cross-disciplinary fields such as epidemiology and education. This four-volume set will therefore provide both an introduction to this method and will be of interest to measurement experts in many fields who will profit from seeing their own areas of research set within a wider context.
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