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Byting Back--Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents
U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have failed to exploit information power, which could be a U.S. advantage but instead is being used advantageously by insurgents. Because insurgency and counterinsurgency involve a battle for the allegiance of a population between a government and an armed opposition movement, the key to exploiting information power is to connect with and learn from the population itself, increasing the effectiveness of both the local government and the U.S. military and civilian services engaged in supporting it. Utilizing mostly available networking technology, the United States could achieve early, affordable, and substantial gains in the effectivenes...
Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces
This independent assessment is a comprehensive study of the strategic benefits, risks, and costs of U.S. military presence overseas. The report provides policymakers a way to evaluate the range of strategic benefits and costs that follow from revising the U.S. overseas military presence by characterizing how this presence contributes to assurance, deterrence, responsiveness, and security cooperation goals.
The U.S.-China Military Scorecard
A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.
Stealing the Sword
Examines how terrorists make technology choices and how the United States can discourage terrorists' use of advanced conventional weapons. Concludes that the United States should urgently start discussions with key producer nations and also decide on an architecture needed to impose technical controls on new mortar systems that should enter development soon.
Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland
Changes in technology and adversary behavior will invariably produce new threats that must be assessed by defense and homeland security planners. An example of such a novel threat is the use of cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by terrorist groups. Individual threats cannot be assessed in isolation, however, since adversaries always have many options for staging attacks. To examine this threat, RAND utilized a ?red analysis of alternatives? approach, wherein the benefits, costs, and risks of different options are considered from the point of view of a potential adversary. For several types of attacks, the suitability of these systems was compared against other options. This ...
Byting Back. Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents
Armed conflict has always made serious demands on information, whether it is about the disposition of our own forces or the intentions and status of the adversarys. With the advent of modern information systems, the management of information about friend and foe has become a key determinant of how armed conflict plays out. The Department of Defense's (DoD's) information architecture for conventional warfare reflects that fact. Counterinsurgency, though, differs from conventional warfare. First, whereas the battles in conventional warfare are waged between dedicated armed forces, the battles of counterinsurgency are waged for and among the people, the central prize in counterinsurgency. Colle...
Adjusting to Global Economic Change
The author combines macroeconomic history since the Great Depression with a brief exposition of economic theory that stems from and explains that history, and explores how that experience may apply to the present economic crisis. He warns that we may again be headed for stagflation and makes suggestions for escaping the worst effects of the crisis.
Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.
Mapping the Risks
Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, many agencies within the federal government began restricting some of their publicly available geospatial data and information from such sources as the World Wide Web. As time passes, however, decisionmakers have begun to ask whether and how such information specifically helps potential attackers, including terrorists, to select U.S. homeland sites and prepare for better attacks. The research detailed in this book aims to assist decisionmakers tasked with the responsibility of choosing which geospatial information to make available and which to restrict.
Using Modeling and Simulation to Advance Effects-Based Security Forces Planning
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) Security Forces (SF) are responsible for detecting, deterring, denying, and defeating security threats in both garrison and expeditionary environments. The SF must address everyday threats that are very similar to those a civilian law enforcement organization responds to on a day-to-day basis. Simultaneously, the SF must address threats that are distinctly military in nature: protecting bases from potentially highly capable attackers. Although existing security planning supports detailed bottom-up, asset-based security planning, such processes do not fully explore the risk trade-offs that are associated with different security strategies, nor do they identify opport...
