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Advances in Decision Analysis
By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers
On Risk and Disaster
Named one of Planetizen's Top 10 Books of 2006 Hurricane Katrina not only devastated a large area of the nation's Gulf coast, it also raised fundamental questions about ways the nation can, and should, deal with the inevitable problems of economic risk and social responsibility. This volume gathers leading experts to examine lessons that Hurricane Katrina teaches us about better assessing, perceiving, and managing risks from future disasters. In the years ahead we will inevitably face more problems like those caused by Katrina, from fire, earthquake, or even a flu pandemic. America remains in the cross hairs of terrorists, while policy makers continue to grapple with important environmental ...
Improving Homeland Security Decisions
Are we safer from terrorism today and is our homeland security money well spent? This book offers answers and more.
Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research
Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences and decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, and other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research is relevant to decision analysis; behavioural scientists have both suggested easy and natural ways to describe and quantify problems and shown the kind of errors to which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation of the principles of decision analysis in a behavioural context. The authors break new ground on a variety of technical topics (sensitivity analysis, the value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), and attempt to make intuitive sense out of what have been treated in the literature as endemic biases and other errors of human judgement. Those interested in artificial intelligence will find it the easiest presentation of hierarchical Bayesian inference available.
Decision Science and Technology
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more....
Conflict and Tradeoffs in Decision Making
The essays in this book address questions about the causes of conflict and its effects.
Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes
This book contains an edited selection of papers presented at the Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making, held in Budapest. Together they span a wide range of new developments in studies of decision making, the practice of decision analysis and the development of decision-aiding technology.The volume is arranged in sections: Societal Decision Making; Organizational Decision Making; Aiding the Structuring of Small Scale Decision Problems, and Tracing Decision Processes.The emphasis is on decision processes and structures and their applications, rather than formal modelling in isolation, thus reflecting current developments in research and practice which follow from the understanding of the nature and operation of decision theoretical models gained during the 1970's.The fifth section, A Symposium on the Validity of Studies on Heuristics and Biases, is of a different nature. The papers take stock of the considerable volume of work investigation ``heuristics and biases'' in decision making over the past decade, and their implication for theory and practice.
The Dynamics of Judicial Proof
Fact finding in judicial proceedings is a dynamic process. This collection of papers considers whether computational methods or other formal logical methods developed in disciplines such as artificial intelligence, decision theory, and probability theory can facilitate the study and management of dynamic evidentiary and inferential processes in litigation. The papers gathered here have several epicenters, including (i) the dynamics of judicial proof, (ii) the relationship between artificial intelligence or formal analysis and "common sense," (iii) the logic of factual inference, including (a) the relationship between causality and inference and (b) the relationship between language and factual inference, (iv) the logic of discovery, including the role of abduction and serendipity in the process of investigation and proof of factual matters, and (v) the relationship between decision and inference.
Judgment and Decision Making
This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
