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Why Stock Markets Crash
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought mont...
Extreme Financial Risks
"Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
New Ways and Needs for Exploiting Nuclear Energy
The history of mankind is a story of ascent to unprecedented levels of comfort, productivity and consumption, enabled by the increased mastery of the basic reserves and flows of energy. This miraculous trajectory is confronted by the consensus that anthropogenic emissions are harmful and must decrease, requiring de-carbonization of the energy system. The mature field of indicator-based sustainability assessment provides a rigorous systematic framework to balance the pros and cons of the various existing energy technologies using lifecycle assessments and weighting criteria covering the environment, economy, and society, as the three pillars of sustainability. In such a framework, nuclear pow...
Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences
A modern up-to-date introduction for readers outside statistical physics. It puts emphasis on a clear understanding of concepts and methods and provides the tools that can be of immediate use in applications.
Market Risk and Financial Markets Modeling
The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.
Critical Risks of Different Economic Sectors
This book explores the major differences between the kinds of risk encountered in different sectors of industry - production (including agriculture) and services - and identifies the main features of accidents within different industries. Because of these differences, unique risk-mitigation measures will need to be implemented in one industry that cannot be implemented in another, leading to large managerial differences between these broad economic sectors. Based on the analysis of more than 500 disasters, accidents and incidents - around 230 cases from the production sector and around 280 cases from the service sector - the authors compare the risk response actions appropriate within differ...
Theory of Zipf's Law and Beyond
Zipf’s law is one of the few quantitative reproducible regularities found in e- nomics. It states that, for most countries, the size distributions of cities and of rms (with additional examples found in many other scienti c elds) are power laws with a speci c exponent: the number of cities and rms with a size greater thanS is inversely proportional toS. Most explanations start with Gibrat’s law of proportional growth but need to incorporate additional constraints and ingredients introducing deviations from it. Here, we present a general theoretical derivation of Zipf’s law, providing a synthesis and extension of previous approaches. First, we show that combining Gibrat’s law at all r...
Averting Disaster Before It Strikes
Some of the major industrial disasters could have been prevented. When the facts of what happened are established, their stories share a common thread: before things spiralled out of control, there were workers at the affected sites who knew that the situation was dangerous, and could become catastrophic unless immediate action was taken. But tragically, nobody dared to tell the decision-makers who could have authorized that action. With no idea of the risks they were taking, the people in charge continued as normal... and disaster struck. Because vital information about risks could not flow freely from the shop floor to the director’s office, the crucial decisions were not made in time. T...
The Great 1976 Tangshan Earthquake
From 1966 to 1976, four large earthquakes shook the Bohai Bay rift basin of Northeast China. This prompted the Chinese to launch one of the worldâ (TM)s largest social and science experiments into earthquake prediction that would engage tens of thousands of common people. The climax of this came in February 1975 where a prediction was made hours before the Haicheng earthquake struck. Evacuation of the city of Yingkou and some rural districts saved thousands of lives. The Chinese were jubilant, believing they had cracked the earthquake prediction conundrum. Eighteen months later, however, on the 28th July, 1976, jubilation turned to despair when a great earthquake flattened the large industr...
Why Stock Markets Crash
The Scientific Study Of Complex Systems Has Transformed A Wide Range Of Disciplines In Recent Years, Enabling Researchers In Both The Natural And Social Science To Model And Predict Phenomena As Diverse As Earthquakes, Global Warming, Demographic Patterns, Financial Crises, And The Failure Of Materials. In This Book, Didier Sornette Boldly Applies His Varied Experience In These Areas To Propose A Simple, General Theory Of How, Why, And When Stock Markets Crash.Any Investor Or Investment Professional Who Seeks A Genuine Understanding Of Looming Financial Disasters Should Read This Book. Physicists, Geologists, Biologists, Economists, And Other Will Welcome Why Stock Markets Crash As A Highly Original Study Of The Exciting And Sometimes Fearsome But No Longer Quite So Unfathomable World Of Stock Markets.This Special Low-Priced Edition Is For Sale In India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, Pakistan And Sri Lanka Only.
