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Cross-Border Payments Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean
Cross-border payment inefficiencies are a significant barrier to trade both within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and between LAC and other regions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of historical efforts undertaken by various countries within the LAC region to address these challenges. We also explore the potential of recent financial innovations, such as digital currencies and blockchain technology, to enhance cross-border payments. While new technologies do not substitute for prudent and credible macroeconomic policies, leveraging these technologies can help LAC countries reduce transaction costs and times, thus enhancing economic efficiency and fostering deeper regional and global trade relationships.
India’s Financial System
India has experienced a prolonged period of strong economic growth since it embarked on major structural reforms and economic liberalization in 1991, with real GDP growth averaging about 6.6 percent during 1991–2019. Millions have been lifted out of poverty. With a population of 1.4 billion and about 7 percent of the world economic output (in purchasing power parity terms), India is the third largest economy—after the US and China. As such, developments in India have significant global and regional implications, including via spillovers through international trade and global supply chains. At the same time, India’s economic development has not been linear and has been impacted by exter...
Brazil
Brazil: Selected Issues
The Rise and Impact of Fintech in Latin America
In the past decade, fintech has shaken up the financial sector in Latin America providing innovations in lending, payments, insurance, and regulation and compliance. This paper examines this development by focusing on both fintech services and regulation. Exploring fintech’s macro-critical impact using country- and bank-level data, we find that booming financial technologies in Latin America have helped boost competition in the banking sector and inclusion. Additionally, we demonstrate that fintech firms in Latin America experienced robust growth even during the pandemic supported by external funding. Finally, we discuss how regulators are addressing the risks associated with financial technologies and how they are leveraging fintech tools in their supervisory activities.
Analyzing Capital Flow Drivers Using the ‘At-Risk’ Framework: South Africa’s Case
Cross-border capital flows are important for South Africa. They fund the nation’s relatively large external financing needs and have important financial stability implications evidenced by the large capital outflows and asset price selloffs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper adds to the literature on the drivers of South Africa’s capital flows by applying the ‘at-risk’ framework––which differentiates between the likelihood of “extreme” inflows (surges) and outflows (reversals) and of “typical” flows––to both nonresident and resident capital flows. Estimated results show that among nonresident flows, the portfolio debt component is most sensitive to changes in external risk sentiment particularly during reversals. This applies to flows to the sovereign sector. Nonresident equity flows, both portfolio and FDI, are most sensitive to domestic economic activity especially during surges. This applies to flows to the corporate and banking sectors. Results also suggest that resident flows, in particular the FDI component, tend to offset nonresident flows, thus acting as buffers against funding withdrawal during periods of global risk aversion.
Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock
This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.
Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely...
Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
T R A N S F O R M A T I O N
“The author, Dasarathi Mishra, a veteran central banker and bank supervisor and a leading champion for financial education, has comprehensively captured the critical role played by the central bank in the financial sector reforms. Mr Mishra’s book is a good addition to the literature on post reforms Indian financial system whose robustness and resilience remains critical to strong, sustained, and inclusive economic growth of the country.” — Harun R Khan, Former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India
Financial Systems, Central Banking and Monetary Policy During COVID-19 Pandemic and After
The book makes an effort in investigating the present and future developments in the financial system, after the COVID-19 Pandemic. The effects of health issues and epidemic diseases influencing the country economies and expected to influence to effect in the future in terms of banking sector especially Central Banking will be discussed. People who take this work will be able to look at events from different windows about money, banking, Central Banks, historical transformation of the banking sector and the relations among the entire financial system and policy makers and also their current issues.
