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Investigation of the Compression of Magnetized Plasma and Magnetic Flux
The present research studies the fundamental physics occurring during the magnetic flux and magnetized plasma compression by plasma implosion. This subject is relevant to numerous studies in laboratory and space plasmas. Recently, it has attracted particular interest due to the advances in producing high-energy-density plasmas in fusion-oriented experiments, based on the approach of magnetized plasma compression. The studied configuration consists of a cylindrical gas-puff shell with pre-embedded axial magnetic field that pre-fills the anode-cathode gap. Subsequently, axial pulsed current is driven through the plasma generating an azimuthal magnetic field that compresses the plasma and the a...
2019 IEEE Pulsed Power and Plasma Science (PPPS)
Combined conference of the IEEE International Conference on Plasma Science and the IEEE International Pulsed Power Conference
On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Asian Monetary Integration
This paper examines the possibility of Asian monetary integration. The paper highlights that the objectives and motivations behind the continuing debate for Asian monetary integration have now evolved. The objectives are no longer defensive, no longer preoccupied with crisis prevention or resolution. They are now more forward looking; they are about growth, about greater trade integration, about spurring greater cross-border flows of investment within Asia, and about promoting the integration and deepening of financial markets.
Resilience, Dynamism, Trust
Foreword: A Perennial Goal: Coupling Prudence with Innovation (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); MAS Leaders; List of Abbreviations; Evolution of a Central Bank: Establishing the Monetary Authority of Singapore (Hon Sui Sen); Why a Currency Board? (Goh Keng Swee); Prudence, Stability, Confidence: The Fundamentals of Good Government and Sound Central Banking (Goh Chok Tong); Macroeconomic Policies in Singapore: Principles, Milestones and Future Prospects (Richard Hu); Credibility, Confidence, Dynamism: MAS in the New Economic and Financial Landscape (Lee Hsien Loong); MAS at Forty: Past Contributions, Future Challenges (Lee Hsien Loong); Building Credibility (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Monetary Policy a...
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Dynamic Econometrics
The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered ...
Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-Friendly Policies to Achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).
Energy Transition Metals
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
