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MANAJEMEN SUMBER DAYA MANUSIA DAN ORGANISASI
Buku ini dirancang untuk memberikan wawasan yang mendalam mengenai manajemen sumber daya manusia (SDM) dan peran vitalnya dalam keberhasilan sebuah organisasi. Di tengah tantangan persaingan global saat ini, pengelolaan SDM yang efektif menjadi salah satu kunci utama dalam mempertahankan keunggulan kompetitif organisasi.
Politics, Poetry, and Sufism in Medieval Iran
In Politics, Poetry, and Sufism in Medieval Iran Chad Lingwood offers new insights into the political significance of poetry and Sufism at the court of Sulṭān Ya‘qūb (d. 896/1490), leader of the Āq Qoyūnlū. The basis of the study is Salāmān va Absāl, a Persian allegorical romance ‘Abd al-Raḥmān Jāmī (d. 898/1492), the great Timurid belletrist and Naqshbandi Sufi, dedicated to Ya‘qūb. Lingwood demonstrates that Salāmān va Absāl, which modern critics have dismissed as ‘crude’ and ‘grotesque,’ is a sophisticated work of political and mystical advice for a Muslim ruler. In the process, he challenges received wisdom concerning Jāmī, the Āq Qoyūnlū, and Perso-Islamic advice literature. Significantly, the study illustrates the extent to which Jāmī’s compositions integrated the Timurid and Āq Qoyūnlū realms.
Zero Days, Thousands of Nights
Zero-day vulnerabilities--software vulnerabilities for which no patch or fix has been publicly released-- and their exploits are useful in cyber operations--whether by criminals, militaries, or governments--as well as in defensive and academic settings. This report provides findings from real-world zero-day vulnerability and exploit data that could augment conventional proxy examples and expert opinion, complement current efforts to create a framework for deciding whether to disclose or retain a cache of zero-day vulnerabilities and exploits, inform ongoing policy debates regarding stockpiling and vulnerability disclosure, and add extra context for those examining the implications and result...
On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Dynamic Econometrics
The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered ...
Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-Friendly Policies to Achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).
Energy Transition Metals
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
