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Bond Markets in Latin America
Developing local bond markets is high on the policy agenda of Latin America. This book's case studies of Argentina, Brazil Chile, Columbia, Mexico and Uruguay, written by country experts follow a common methodology, with each offering a history of that country's bond market development and data sets.
Full Dollarization
Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another country’s currency. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. But countries lose the ability to devalue, and become dependent on the U.S. Compares with currency board option.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, Special Issue, IMF Annual Research Conference,
This paper presents a broad overview of postwar analytical thinking on international macroeconomics, culminating in a more detailed discussion of recent progress. The paper reviews important empirical evidence that has inspired alternative modeling approaches, as well as theoretical and policy considerations behind developments in the field. The paper presents an empirical study of fiscal policy in countries with extreme monetary regimes. It also examines members of multilateral currency unions, dollarized countries that officially use the money of another country, and countries using currency boards.
Asian Financial Integration
The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but Asian countries remain considerably more financially integrated with major countries outside the region than with those within the region. The paper also discusses whether potential benefits of regional financial integration, such as increased risk-sharing and stability of the investor base, have materialized.
The Strategy of Reform in the Previously Centrally-Planned Economies of Eastern Europe
This paper analyzes some of the lessons that can be drawn from the experience of Eastern Europe in the process of transition to a market economy that is under way, and examines some key challenges currently facing policymakers in these economies. The paper studies the constraints affecting the general strategy of reform--rapid versus gradual--that was adopted, and the output decline initially experienced and its effect on medium-term growth perspectives. The paper also discusses the implementation of mass privatization schemes, and the type and extent of government intervention in the restructuring process. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the authors) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"?
Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a private borrower above the sovereign (the "sovereign ceiling") it appears that sovereign ratings remain a significant determinant of the credit rating assigned to corporations. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the past decade and conclude that the sovereign ratings have a significant and robust effect on private ratings even after controlling for country specific macroeconomic conditions and firm-level performance indicators. This suggests that public debt management affects the private sector through a channel that had not been previously recognized
Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe
Even modest investment rates may achieve satisfactory rates of growth in the reforming economies of Eastern Europe because their relative capital scarcity implies high rates of productivity for capital. The most serious obstacle to private investment is uncertainty about the reform process, which can potentially rule out all but the most profitable projects. This problem sharply increases the payoff from accelerating the structural reform process. Regarding savings, critical aspects are the changes in methods of financing resulting from economic reform, and the availability of foreign savings, both in the form of loans and foreign direct investment.
An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America
We assess monetary regime options for Latin American countries. The costs of a common currency are likely to outweigh its benefits, as those countries face diverse economic shocks, do not trade much with each other, and are affected by common international financial shocks only to the same extent as the average pair of emerging markets. Unilateral dollarization would be desirable only for those countries where there are strong links to the U.S. economy, the credibility of the monetary authorities is irreversibly lost, and there is keen demand for dollar-denominated financial assets. Finally, some countries in the region seem to be good candidates for meaningful and useful floating.
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry
A consistent set of disaggregated industrial output data for four Eastern European countries is examined In order to determine the extent to which structural adjustment has taken place since the initiation of market-oriented reform. The latter created a massive relative price shock whose affects on the structure of the industrial sectors of these economies is shown to have been relatively small, at least one to two years after the reforms. An implication is that one argument in favor of more gradualist reform—based on the premise that more gradualism implies a smaller output cost in the short run—is questionable. By and large in these economies, the output cost associated with the removal of relative price distortions may still have to be faced.
Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies
Dollarization - the holding by residents of a substantial portion of their assets in foreign-currency-denominated assets- is a common feature of developing and transition economies, and therefore typical of many countries with IMF - supported adjustment programs. This paper analyzes policy issues that arise-and various monetary strategies that may be pursued- when the monetary sector is dollarized, and it considers the implications that dollarization has for the design of IMF programs.
