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Stochastic Volatility in Financial Markets
Stochastic Volatility in Financial Markets presents advanced topics in financial econometrics and theoretical finance, and is divided into three main parts. The first part aims at documenting an empirical regularity of financial price changes: the occurrence of sudden and persistent changes of financial markets volatility. This phenomenon, technically termed `stochastic volatility', or `conditional heteroskedasticity', has been well known for at least 20 years; in this part, further, useful theoretical properties of conditionally heteroskedastic models are uncovered. The second part goes beyond the statistical aspects of stochastic volatility models: it constructs and uses new fully articulated, theoretically-sounded financial asset pricing models that allow for the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. The third part shows how the inclusion of the statistical aspects of stochastic volatility in a rigorous economic scheme can be faced from an empirical standpoint.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows
This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.
A Guide to IMF Stress Testing
The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area
The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial in...
Global Interdependence, Decoupling, and Recoupling
Investigations of the propagation and influence of global shocks among the economies of developed and developing countries.
Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning
We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk
This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro) level, as well as on the level of individual large banks. Both estimates yield significant feedback effects of substantial magnitude. The estimates are consistent with other work in this area. Our results suggest that prudential supervision could be enhanced by taking into account the feedback effects of financial instability in the real economy. We also propose a way to integrate feedback effects into stress tests in order to improve realism and accuracy or macroeconomic stress scenarios, as well as a metric to interpret stress testing results.
IBSS: Economics: 1993 Vol 42
This bibliography lists the most important works published in economics in 1993. Renowned for its international coverage and rigorous selection procedures, the IBSS provides researchers and librarians with the most comprehensive and scholarly bibliographic service available in the social sciences. The IBSS is compiled by the British Library of Political and Economic Science at the London School of Economics, one of the world's leading social science institutions. Published annually, the IBSS is available in four subject areas: anthropology, economics, political science and sociology.
Introduction to Finance
The fifteenth edition of Introduction to Finance: Markets, Investments, and Financial Management builds upon the successes of its earlier editions while maintaining a fresh and up-to-date coverage of the field of finance. Distinguished authors Ron Melicher and Edgar Norton continue to cover the three major financial areas: institutions and markets, investments, and financial management. Their effective structure equips instructors with maximum flexibility for how the course is taught, and students with an integrated perspective of the different foundations of finance. This survey of the basic knowledge, concepts, and terms of the discipline is appropriate for all students. For those who do not plan to take additional courses in finance, it provides a valuable overview. For those who want to take additional coursework in finance, it provides a solid foundation for their future studies and careers.
Cost of Capital
Praise for Cost of Capital, Fourth Edition "This book is the most incisive and exhaustive treatment of this critical subject to date." —From the Foreword by Stephen P. Lamb, Esq., Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, and former vice chancellor, Delaware Court of Chancery "Cost of Capital, Fourth Edition treats both the theory and the practical applications from the view of corporate management and investors. It contains in-depth guidance to assist corporate executives and their staffs in estimating cost of capital like no other book does. This book will serve corporate practitioners as a comprehensive reference book on this challenging topic in these most challenging econ...
