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Gender and Revenue Administration
This technical note provides an overview of current issues and ideas that revenue administrations can consider regarding gender equality. It discusses the interactions between revenue administrations and gender equality and explores how revenue administrations can administer gender-sensitive tax laws effectively and apply a gender lens when administering tax or trade laws with a view to reducing barriers for women’s employment, entrepreneurship, and trade. It also provides practical considerations for a revenue administration in building gender perspectives in reform plans and shares several examples that highlight targeted measures that have led to positive outcomes in several countries.
The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Taming Public Debt in Europe
Public debt ratios in Europe increased significantly in response to the pandemic and energy shocks and have remained higher than before the pandemic in most countries. Going forward, the projected public debt trajectories are broadly flat overall in advanced Europe but have a rising profile in emerging Europe. Government financing needs are still elevated, and the unwinding of quantitative easing by major central banks adds to financing pressures. Moreover, there are important medium- to long-term spending pressures from defense, climate transition, and aging, which are not fully reflected in the projected baseline trajectories. Against this backdrop, the risk that debts will not stabilize i...
Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States
Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.
World Economic Outlook, October 2021
The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.
Second-Generation Fiscal Rules
Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy
This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.
Mask Mandates Save Lives
We quantify the effect of mask mandates in the United States. Our regression discontinuity design exploits county-level variation in COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths across the border between states with and without mandates. We find a significant and substantial effect—mask mandates reduced new weekly COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by 55, 11 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants on average. Crucially, we find that the effect of mask mandates depends on the attitudes toward mask wearing at the county level, with larger effects in counties more positively inclined towards mask wearing. Our results imply that mandates saved 87,000 lives through December 19, 2020, while a nationwide mandate could have saved 58,000 additional lives. These large effects suggest that mask mandates are a crucial tool to counter pandemics, particularly if accepted widely by the population. Our results are thus also relevant for countries who will not be able to immunize large swaths of their population in the short term.
Get Off Your Assets
Booklist starred review: "From creating a "money map" (asking "what money habits do I want to change?") to establishing a "no magic money log" (a budgeting exercise) and assembling a personal financial team including a financial advisor, accountant, and perhaps a forensic accountant, Godfrey provides readers with enough information to begin improving their financial outlook as they also manage divorce proceedings, without being overwhelmed with complicated terminology or unnecessarily specific finance jargon...highly recommended...” Step-by-step financial advice for women over 50 thinking about divorce, knee-deep in it, or designing life after their gray divorce You had a long-term marriag...
