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A Dynamic Approach to Europe's Unemployment Problem
Examines the main factors influencing unemployment at both an aggregate level and at an individual level and assesses the role of policies to bring unemployment down.
Occupied Economies
What were the consequences of the German occupation for the economy of occupied Europe? After Germany conquered major parts of the European continent, it was faced with a choice between plundering the suppressed countries and using their economies to supply its needs. The choices made not only differed from country to country, but also changed over the course of the war. Individual leaders; the economic needs of the Reich; the military situation; struggles between governors of occupied countries and Berlin officials; and finally racism, all had an impact on the outcome. In some countries the emphasis was placed on production for German warfare, which kept these economies functioning. New research, presented for the first time in this book, shows that as a consequence the economic setback in these areas was limited, and therefore post-war recovery was relatively easy. However, in other countries, plundering was more characteristic, resulting in partisan activity, a collapse of normal society and a dramatic destruction not only of the economy but in some countries of a substantial proportion of the labour force. In these countries, post-war recovery was almost impossible.
Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance
An authoritative graduate textbook on information choice, an exciting frontier of research in economics and finance Most theories in economics and finance predict what people will do, given what they know about the world around them. But what do people know about their environments? The study of information choice seeks to answer this question, explaining why economic players know what they know—and how the information they have affects collective outcomes. Instead of assuming what people do or don't know, information choice asks what people would choose to know. Then it predicts what, given that information, they would choose to do. In this textbook, Laura Veldkamp introduces graduate stu...
Macroeconomic Theory
This graduate textbook is a "primer" in macroeconomics. It starts with essential undergraduate macroeconomics and develops in a simple and rigorous manner the central topics of modern macroeconomic theory including rational expectations, growth, business cycles, money, unemployment, government policy, and the macroeconomics of nonclearing markets. The emphasis throughout the book is on both foundations and presenting the simplest model for each topic that will deliver the relevant answers. The first two chapters recall the main workhorses of undergraduate macroeconomics: the Solow-Swan growth model, the Keynesian IS-LM model, and the Phillips curve. The next chapters present four fundamental...
Capacity Building in Economics Education and Research
This book presents papers from the conference on "Scaling up the Success of Capacity Building in Economic Education and Research," which took place in Budapest at the Central European University campus. It includes contributions from key researchers, academics and policy makers from Europe, the United States, and developing countries that identify and brainstorm on capacity building challenges.
Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
The Employment Effects of Technological Change
This book provides an empirical and theoretical examination of the short- and medium run impacts of technological advances on the employment and wages of workers which differ in their earned educational degree. Furthermore, by introducing labor market frictions and wage setting institutions the author shows the importance of such imperfections in order to replicate empirical facts.
Can News be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations?
We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, a la Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the Japanese and U.S. economies show that (1) the news shocks play an important role in business cycles; (2) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables; and (3) the overall effect of the total factor productivity on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.
News Shocks in Open Economies
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
